Momentum analyst Michael Oliver believes the recent correction in gold and silver is a pause within a much larger bull market, not the beginning of a prolonged decline. With government bond markets under pressure, financial stocks showing technical weakness, and precious metals miners beginning to outperform bullion, Oliver argues that investors could be approaching a major rotation into hard assets.
The latest pullback in gold and silver has shaken investor confidence, but Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, sees a very different picture emerging beneath the surface.
In our recent talk, the veteran market technician argued that precious metals could be approaching the acceleration phase of their bull market. Rather than interpreting the recent weakness as evidence that the rally has run its course, Oliver views the price action as a consolidation that may be preparing the market for another powerful advance.
His outlook extends well beyond gold and silver. Oliver sees mounting risks in government bonds, potential weakness in financial stocks, and a broader shift in investor preferences as traditional financial assets come under pressure. In his view, these developments could eventually direct more capital toward tangible assets, including precious metals, mining equities, energy, and other commodities.
The central theme of his analysis is that the monetary environment is changing. If confidence in government debt and conventional financial assets deteriorates, investors may increasingly reconsider the role of gold and silver in their portfolios.
The recent decline in precious metals has created considerable uncertainty among investors. After a powerful advance, both gold and silver experienced significant pullbacks, leading some market participants to question whether the bull market had reached its peak.
Oliver disagrees with that interpretation.
He believes the correction has largely served to relieve the excesses created by the previous rally, while the broader trend remains intact. According to his analysis, gold and silver have spent recent months moving through a wide consolidation range rather than entering a sustained bear market.
Oliver highlighted the price structure following the January advance. Although successive corrections pushed gold and silver to progressively lower lows, the declines were relatively limited compared with the magnitude of the preceding rally.
Gold's successive lows moved from approximately $4,300–$4,400 to around $4,100 before reaching approximately $3,950 during the summer. Silver experienced a similar pattern, falling from an initial low near $63.90 to approximately $61 before reaching around $55.
However, Oliver argues that the inability of selling pressure to generate a more decisive breakdown is significant.
Silver subsequently recovered toward $71 before retreating into the low $60s. Gold also rebounded from its summer low. In Oliver's interpretation, the market's inability to extend the decline meaningfully suggests that sellers may be losing momentum.
He believes the summer lows could mark the end of the corrective phase, although that remains a market forecast rather than a confirmed outcome.
The distinction matters because corrections following exceptionally strong advances can be psychologically difficult. Investors who entered near the highs may interpret any decline as the beginning of a much larger reversal, while longer-term investors may view the same price action as an opportunity to position themselves before the next advance.
Oliver's methodology focuses on momentum and structural changes in price behaviour. Rather than relying exclusively on conventional chart patterns, he examines the relationship between longer-term trends and shorter-term momentum signals.
In his assessment, the longer-term trend in gold and silver remained positive even when shorter-term indicators turned negative following the January correction.
The subsequent recovery, he argues, suggests that the corrective phase may be approaching its conclusion.
While the recent price action in precious metals remains important, Oliver believes the more significant development is occurring in the bond market.
He argues that government debt is becoming a growing source of financial instability, with implications for currencies, equities, and the relative attractiveness of tangible assets.
Earlier in the year, Oliver warned that the US Treasury bond market was vulnerable to a breakdown after attempting to establish a base. According to the levels discussed in the interview, Treasury bond futures subsequently declined from approximately 114 in April to around 101.
Bond prices and yields move inversely. When bond prices decline, yields rise, reflecting the lower prices investors are willing to pay for existing debt.
For Oliver, this is more than a technical development. He believes it reflects deeper concerns about the sustainability of government borrowing, persistent deficits, and the long-term purchasing power of fiat currencies.
He sees similar pressures emerging across other major developed markets, including the United Kingdom and Europe, while comparing the US situation with Japan's recent experience of defending confidence in its government debt market.
Oliver argues that the current environment differs fundamentally from previous financial crises.
The 2008 crisis centred on mortgage-related risks and the financial system's exposure to deteriorating credit quality. The dot-com collapse was associated with excessive valuations in a particular sector of the equity market.
Today's challenge, in his view, is broader because government debt itself is becoming a source of concern.
As public borrowing increases, governments face competing priorities: maintaining confidence in their debt, financing spending commitments, and managing the consequences of higher interest rates.
The situation becomes more complicated when private and commercial debt are also under pressure.
Oliver believes these dynamics could eventually undermine confidence in assets that investors have traditionally considered relatively safe.
As he explained:
"This is government debt. And private debt as well, commercial debt, there's a lot of that."
His argument is that investors may be approaching a point where the traditional balance between stocks and bonds becomes less reliable. If equities weaken while government bonds also struggle, the range of assets investors consider attractive could narrow significantly.
That is where Oliver sees an important opportunity for gold and silver.
Rather than depending solely on expectations of stronger industrial demand or improving investor sentiment, he believes precious metals could benefit from a reassessment of the monetary system itself.
Oliver's long-term bullish case for precious metals rests on the purchasing power of money.
He argues that investors often focus too narrowly on conventional inflation indicators, particularly consumer price indices, while paying insufficient attention to the expansion of the money supply.
In the interview, he cited US M2 money supply growth over the preceding 12 months as an example of what he considers a more fundamental monetary issue. He argued that money supply growth had been running at roughly twice the rate of the inflation target frequently discussed by policymakers.
His broader point is that monetary expansion can erode purchasing power over time, even when official inflation measures appear relatively contained.
Gold, in this framework, is not simply another commodity. Oliver views it as monetary wealth: an asset whose role becomes more important when confidence in paper currencies deteriorates.
This distinction underpins his belief that gold's advance could accelerate if government bond markets continue to weaken.
When investors become concerned about the purchasing power of cash, the sustainability of government debt, and the stability of traditional financial assets, demand for assets outside the conventional financial system may increase.
Oliver sees gold and silver as potential beneficiaries of that shift.
He also believes the next phase of the precious metals bull market could be driven by a change in investor psychology. At present, the recent correction has discouraged some investors. But if gold and silver begin making new highs while financial markets deteriorate, the narrative could change rapidly.
Instead of questioning whether precious metals have already peaked, investors may begin asking why they do not have greater exposure.
Historically, such shifts in sentiment can contribute to accelerating price movements. However, the timing and magnitude of any such development remain uncertain.
Silver's potential to outperform gold was another major focus of the discussion.
Oliver believes silver could experience a significantly stronger advance than gold during the next phase of the bull market. He does not offer a definitive price target for the next major advance, but he argues that silver's long-term price structure leaves substantial room for a repricing if the monetary metals bull market continues.
His analysis centres on silver's unusually long period of confinement beneath major resistance levels.
For decades, silver struggled to establish a sustained move above its historical highs. Even when gold advanced substantially beyond its previous peaks, silver repeatedly encountered resistance around the $50 level.
Oliver views this prolonged underperformance as a potentially important structural feature.
In his assessment, silver's eventual breakout represented more than an ordinary price advance. It marked the release of pent-up momentum after decades of relative stagnation.
He outlined how his firm identified successive opportunities during the developing bull market.
In March 2024, when silver was approaching $26, Oliver's analysis indicated that the metal could be preparing for a more significant advance. Silver subsequently climbed toward $35 before consolidating.
When the metal returned to that area in 2025, his firm interpreted the developing price structure as evidence that another breakout could be approaching.
By November, silver had moved through the $50 level and reached approximately $56, according to the historical sequence described in the interview. Oliver said his firm subsequently issued another long-term buy signal.
The subsequent surge carried silver as high as approximately $120 in a short period, before the metal underwent a substantial correction.
That rapid advance demonstrated both the potential power and the risks of silver's volatility. Investors who waited for the breakout to become obvious may have entered at much higher prices, only to experience the ensuing decline.
Oliver's argument is that the correction should not automatically be interpreted as the end of the opportunity.
He believes that once the current consolidation ends, silver could resume its advance with considerable speed.
Oliver's relative-value analysis provides another reason for his bullish outlook.
Rather than looking exclusively at silver's dollar price, he examines silver's value relative to gold. This relationship can help illustrate whether silver is gaining or losing ground against the yellow metal.
According to the figures discussed in the interview, silver's value relative to gold had recovered from approximately 1% at a low in the previous year to around 1.5%–1.6%.
Despite this recovery, Oliver argues that silver remains significantly undervalued relative to gold when compared with previous major precious metals bull markets.
In 1980, silver's price was equivalent to approximately 6.5% of the price of an ounce of gold. During the 2011 advance, the relationship reached approximately 3.1%.
At the time of the interview, the ratio remained around half the 2011 level, despite silver having moved above its previous nominal price highs.
Oliver does not expect this relationship to strengthen solely because silver rises while gold remains unchanged. Instead, he anticipates both metals moving higher, with silver advancing at a faster pace.
Such a scenario could produce substantial gains in silver's relative valuation.
It also provides context for the much higher price levels sometimes discussed by silver bulls. A return to historical relative-value levels, combined with a significantly higher gold price, would imply a very different silver price environment.
However, historical ratios do not guarantee future outcomes. Silver's relationship with gold can remain depressed for extended periods, and the metal's price is influenced by industrial demand, investment flows, supply conditions, and broader economic developments.
The key question is whether the next phase of the monetary metals bull market will produce the kind of relative outperformance that Oliver anticipates.
Oliver's most ambitious argument extends beyond conventional price targets.
He believes a severe deterioration in confidence in government debt and fiat currencies could trigger a broader reassessment of the monetary system.
Under that scenario, gold could become more important not only to private investors but also to governments seeking to strengthen their financial positions.
Oliver suggested that the next major bull market in precious metals may unfold alongside significant changes in how countries approach monetary reserves and currency stability.
He pointed to China's accumulation of gold as an example of a country seeking to build a financial safety net.
In his view, countries holding substantial gold reserves may be better positioned to navigate a global recession or depression than those relying more heavily on financial assets vulnerable to monetary instability.
Oliver also raised the possibility that gold-backed currencies could become more prominent in the future.
He suggested that some countries might move toward such arrangements before Western economies, including the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe, and Japan, respond to similar pressures.
This remains a speculative scenario, rather than a prediction that any particular government will introduce a gold-backed currency on a defined timetable. Nevertheless, it illustrates the scale of the monetary changes Oliver believes could accompany a prolonged government debt crisis.
If confidence in existing monetary arrangements weakens, gold's role could extend beyond that of an investment asset and become part of a broader debate about financial stability.
Oliver also questioned whether central banks and the Federal Reserve would retain their current institutional standing if policymakers were widely blamed for the underlying monetary problems.
His argument is that the next major precious metals advance may not follow the familiar pattern of a conventional market cycle.
Instead, the economic and financial conditions driving prices could change the assumptions on which investors have historically based their decisions.
For precious metals investors, the implication is significant: the potential upside may be linked not simply to a temporary increase in demand, but to a structural shift in perceptions of money and financial risk.
One of the most important parts of Oliver's analysis concerns mining equities.
Although investors often view gold and silver miners as riskier alternatives to owning physical metals, Oliver believes the recent relative performance of mining shares suggests that a significant change may already be underway.
He pointed to early August as an important turning point, when his firm issued intermediate-term buy signals for gold, silver, and the mining sector.
Following the summer lows, gold and silver rallied, but the mining equities performed even more strongly relative to the metals.
Oliver highlighted the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) and the Global X Silver Miners ETF (SIL) as examples of the sector's recovery.
He also referenced major producers such as Newmont and Wheaton Precious Metals, noting that their shares recovered much of their previous declines in a relatively short period.
According to Oliver, this relative strength is particularly noteworthy because mining stocks had been underperforming the underlying metals for an extended period.
His interpretation is that capital is beginning to rotate into the equity sector.
This could reflect the behaviour of institutional asset managers who want exposure to precious metals but are restricted in the instruments they can hold. For some investors, mining shares may offer a practical way to express a bullish view on gold and silver.
Oliver believes the market's behaviour is already providing evidence of that process.
As he put it:
"The miners have beaten the pants off the metals."
The significance of this observation lies in the distinction between absolute and relative performance.
A mining stock can rise alongside gold without necessarily outperforming the metal. Oliver is more interested in periods when miners begin gaining ground relative to bullion, which he considers a potentially important signal of improving sector leadership.
If that relationship continues to strengthen, mining equities could become one of the strongest-performing segments of the precious metals market.
Mining companies can offer investors operating leverage to the price of gold and silver.
When realised metal prices rise faster than production costs, profit margins may expand disproportionately. In favourable circumstances, this can allow mining shares to outperform the underlying commodities.
However, this leverage also works in reverse. Rising costs, operational disruptions, declining grades, political risks, financing requirements, and poor capital allocation can prevent miners from translating higher metal prices into stronger shareholder returns.
Oliver's technical argument does not eliminate those company-specific risks. Instead, it focuses on what relative price performance may reveal about investor demand.
He believes the sector's recent recovery suggests that investors are becoming more willing to own mining equities despite their historically poor reputation among some market participants.
If gold and silver resume their advances, this shift could attract further attention from investors who have so far concentrated on bullion, physical metal funds, or futures.
Oliver's preferred exposure within the monetary metals sector is therefore silver and gold miners, followed by silver itself and, to a lesser extent, gold.
That ranking reflects his expectation of stronger relative performance rather than a claim that mining shares are inherently safer than physical metals.
For investors considering the sector, the distinction between a broad bullish trend and the prospects of individual companies remains essential.
Oliver's outlook for mining equities is closely connected to his concerns about the wider stock market.
He believes the US equity market could be approaching a topping process, with financial stocks showing particular signs of weakness.
He referenced technical studies of the Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLF) and several large banks, arguing that their price structures appeared vulnerable.
While the broader S&P 500 had moved sideways for a period, he said financial shares had been trending lower.
Oliver sees this divergence as a warning that the apparent stability of the wider market may be concealing underlying weakness.
If financial stocks deteriorate further, investors could begin reassessing the risks within their equity portfolios.
The situation could become more complicated if bond prices also remain under pressure. Rising yields can increase borrowing costs, affect asset valuations, and place additional strain on borrowers and financial institutions.
Oliver believes the combination of weakening financial stocks and a struggling government bond market could eventually undermine investor confidence more broadly.
He suggested that the current quarter could prove important for the stock market, although the timing of any major decline remains uncertain.
His concern is that investors have become accustomed to treating both stocks and bonds as reliable components of a conventional portfolio. If both markets weaken simultaneously, investors may find themselves with fewer attractive alternatives.
In that environment, precious metals and mining equities could benefit from a search for assets perceived as offering protection against monetary and financial instability.
The scenario also helps explain why Oliver is watching the relationship between miners and bullion so closely. If investors are already beginning to shift toward mining shares, their relative strength could provide an early indication of a broader change in portfolio positioning.
Although precious metals dominate Oliver's current outlook, he remains constructive on commodities more broadly.
When asked which commodity presented the most compelling opportunity, he declined to select a single winner. Instead, he recommended approaching the sector as a diversified basket.
His reasoning is based on the different stages of the commodity cycle and the tendency for leadership to rotate between individual markets.
Oliver referred to the Bloomberg Commodity Index to illustrate the scale of the previous downturn and the recovery that followed.
According to the figures discussed in the interview, the index fell below 60 during the 2020 market lows, compared with a historical peak of approximately 237 in 2008.
Oliver's firm identified an initial bullish phase in October 2020, when the index stood near 70. By early 2022, it had doubled to approximately 140.
The subsequent period saw a pullback and an extended consolidation around the 100 level.
In October of the previous year, the index stood near 107 when Oliver's analysis indicated that another advance could be beginning. At the time of the interview, it had climbed to approximately 141.
For Oliver, the important point is that this advance has not been driven exclusively by oil.
In the previous commodity upswing, oil was a major leader. During the more recent advance, however, he viewed oil as a laggard, with many other commodities turning higher before the energy market followed.
He believes oil could still move significantly higher, but he attributes that possibility to the broader commodity trend rather than to any single geopolitical event.
The wider implication is that investors should not assume the commodity market is dependent on one particular metal, energy product, or agricultural input.
Different commodities can perform strongly at different stages of the cycle. A diversified approach may therefore be more effective than attempting to identify the single best-performing market in advance.
Oliver explained his approach simply:
"I would broadly I would treat commodities as a basket. I wouldn't try to select a particular one."
For investors seeking exposure, he suggested considering a selection of commodity-related equities, including base-metal miners, agricultural companies, fertiliser producers, and oil-sector stocks.
Such an approach would provide exposure to multiple areas of the commodity complex rather than concentrating the portfolio in one market.
It would not remove the risks associated with commodity investing, but it could reduce dependence on correctly predicting which individual commodity will outperform.
Oliver's comments on oil are particularly relevant to his broader commodity thesis.
During the 2020–2022 upswing, oil was among the leaders of the commodity market. In the more recent cycle, he described it as a laggard that had only begun to strengthen later.
He believes the broader rise in commodity prices could eventually support a stronger oil market.
This view differs from an outlook based exclusively on geopolitical developments. Although geopolitical events can have a significant influence on energy prices, Oliver's analysis focuses on the wider direction of the commodity complex.
If the commodity bull market continues, lagging sectors may begin to participate more fully.
However, this remains dependent on market conditions, and individual commodities can diverge substantially from the broader trend.
For investors, the main lesson is that leadership can change. A commodity that has underperformed during one phase of a cycle may become a leader later, while a previous outperformer can lose momentum.
Oliver's analysis points to several developments that could help determine whether his bullish thesis is gaining confirmation.
1. Gold and silver's ability to hold their summer lows
Oliver believes the summer lows marked the end of the recent correction. A sustained recovery without a decisive breakdown would support his interpretation that the metals are consolidating before another advance.
2. A breakout from the current consolidation range
The next important development would be a renewed move through previous highs. Oliver expects such a breakout to potentially trigger a faster advance as investors who remained on the sidelines reconsider their positions.
3. Continued weakness in government bonds
The bond market is central to Oliver's macroeconomic thesis. Further declines in government bond prices and rising yields could increase concerns about debt sustainability and the attractiveness of conventional financial assets.
4. Financial stocks' relative performance
Oliver is watching the financial sector for signs that weakness is spreading through the equity market. Continued underperformance in financial stocks could reinforce his concerns about the broader market's stability.
5. Mining equities outperforming bullion
Relative strength in gold and silver miners is one of the clearest technical signals Oliver has highlighted. If mining shares continue outperforming the underlying metals, it could indicate that investor demand is broadening beyond physical precious metals.
6. Broader participation across commodities
Finally, the Bloomberg Commodity Index and the performance of sectors such as base metals, agriculture, fertilisers, and energy could help establish whether the commodity bull market is becoming more widespread.
None of these signals can guarantee a particular market outcome. Together, however, they provide a framework for evaluating whether the developments Oliver anticipates are beginning to materialise.
Michael Oliver's outlook is built around the interaction of technical momentum and broader monetary conditions.
He believes gold and silver may be nearing the end of a corrective phase that has discouraged many investors, while weakness in government bonds and financial stocks could provide the catalyst for the next advance.
His longer-term thesis is that the precious metals market may be responding to a deeper concern: the sustainability of government debt and the purchasing power of fiat currencies.
Within that framework, gold serves as a monetary asset, silver offers the potential for greater relative outperformance, and mining equities could provide additional upside if investor capital continues rotating into the sector.
Oliver is also constructive on commodities as a whole, favouring diversified exposure across multiple industries rather than attempting to identify one commodity that will outperform all others.
The most important question is whether the recent correction has already established a durable low or whether further volatility lies ahead. Oliver believes the former is more likely, but investors will need to watch price action and market confirmation closely.
If his thesis proves correct, the next phase could look very different from the one investors have just experienced. Rather than a gradual recovery led by a handful of assets, the market could see a broader reassessment of government debt, financial risk, and the role of tangible assets in investment portfolios.
For precious metals investors, that possibility makes the relationship between gold, silver, miners, and the bond market especially important to monitor.
Watch the full interview with Michael Oliver on Triangle Investor for his detailed analysis of gold, silver, mining equities, government bonds, and the broader commodity outlook.
Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security, commodity, or financial instrument. Market forecasts and price expectations discussed are those of Michael Oliver and may not materialise. Investors should conduct their own due diligence and consult a qualified financial adviser before making investment decisions.
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