Top Uranium Market Insights from Expert Timothy Chilleri
October 12, 2025
uranium and nuclear energy

Timothy Chilleri, a renowned uranium market expert and the founder of Golden Rock Research , with a deep background in commodities and a keen understanding of the uranium sector, shared his insights on the current state of the uranium market, its structural challenges, and the opportunities that lie ahead.

Timothy Chilleri’s Journey in Commodities and Uranium

Timothy Chilleri’s career in commodities began during the tumultuous period of the 2008 global financial crisis. After graduating from university, he entered the world of finance with a choice between equities and commodities. Drawn to the less-traveled path of commodities, Chilleri started as a futures and options broker in Chicago, gaining exposure to a wide range of markets. This role provided him with a foundational understanding of commodity trading dynamics.

His career took a significant turn when he joined Olam International, a Singapore-based physical trading house, as a physical commodity trader specializing in cashew kernels. This experience honed his expertise in supply chains, origination, and primary supply-demand analysis. It also sparked his interest in niche commodities, where information asymmetry could provide a competitive edge.

In 2015, Chilleri stumbled upon uranium, a commodity in the depths of a bear market with spot prices around $30 per pound, heading toward a cycle low of $18 two years later. Recognizing the potential for a rebound, he began researching the sector and collaborated with Mike Alkin, a veteran portfolio manager. Together, they accurately predicted the uranium bull market, and Chilleri joined Alkin’s fund, Sachem Cove, where he spent seven years deepening his expertise in uranium markets. In recent years, Chilleri founded Golden Rock Research, where he provides research, commentary, and analysis tailored to equity and commodity investors, focusing on the structural dynamics of the uranium industry.

The Structural Deficit in Uranium Supply

One of the central themes of discussion was the structural deficit in uranium supply, a topic Chilleri has consistently highlighted in his work. The uranium market faces significant challenges due to depleting mines, lengthy project timelines, and increasing global demand. Chilleri emphasized that the market is at a critical juncture, with utilities and investors needing clarity on when and how new supply will come online.

Key Projects and Potential Delays

Chilleri identified two major projects in Canada’s Athabasca Basin as pivotal to the uranium market’s future: NexGen Energy’s Rook 1 (Arrow deposit) and Denison Mines’ Wheeler River (Phoenix deposit). Both projects are navigating the final stages of the permitting process, with hearings scheduled for early 2026. The outcomes of these hearings will provide critical clarity on timelines and feasibility.

  • NexGen’s Rook 1 (Arrow Deposit): Described as a “generational deposit,” Arrow boasts nearly a quarter billion pounds of indicated and inferred resources. Its scale and potential longevity make it a cornerstone of future supply. However, Chilleri noted that the project faces significant hurdles, including permitting, financing, and technical challenges. While he believes financing will likely be secured due to growing global interest in nuclear energy, the timeline for production remains uncertain. Chilleri speculated that Arrow could be a prime acquisition target for major players like Cameco or Orano, given the complexity of developing such a large-scale project.
  • Denison’s Wheeler River (Phoenix Deposit): Denison aims to begin production by 2028, but Chilleri cautioned that the ramp-up to full capacity may take longer than anticipated. Permitting remains a key bottleneck, particularly in Canada, where regulatory processes are rigorous compared to jurisdictions like Niger or Namibia.

Chilleri also addressed Paladin Energy’s Triple R deposit, acquired from Fission Uranium. While Paladin is focused on ramping up its Langer Heinrich mine in Namibia to 5–6 million pounds annually, Triple R’s development timeline is less clear. Its proximity to Rook 1 raises questions about potential synergies, such as shared milling infrastructure, which could impact its feasibility and timeline. Chilleri suggested that a 2030–2032 production start for Triple R might be overly optimistic given the project’s early-stage status.

Bottlenecks in Project Development

The key bottlenecks for these projects include:

  1. Permitting: Regulatory hurdles vary by jurisdiction. In Canada, the process is stringent, while African nations like Niger and Namibia offer faster permitting but come with political risks.
  2. Financing: Large-scale uranium projects require significant capital. While investor interest in nuclear energy is growing, securing the necessary funds depends on market conditions and project certainty.
  3. Technical Challenges: Developing high-grade deposits like Arrow or Phoenix involves complex engineering and skilled labor, which can delay timelines and increase costs.
  4. Labor and Infrastructure: The availability of skilled labor and infrastructure, particularly in remote regions like the Athabasca Basin, poses additional challenges.

Chilleri emphasized that even if permitting is secured, the time required to bring these projects to production will likely extend beyond current expectations, exacerbating the supply deficit in the near term.

China’s Growing Uranium Demand

China’s nuclear ambitions were a focal point of our discussion. Chilleri estimated that China faces a uranium shortfall of approximately 70 million pounds through 2030, driven by its rapidly expanding reactor fleet. Currently consuming about 30 million pounds annually, China’s demand is projected to reach 70–80 million pounds by 2040. Domestic production, even if doubled, would only reach 8–10 million pounds, leaving a significant gap.

To address this shortfall, China relies on:

  • Domestic Production: Limited to a few million pounds annually, with potential for modest growth.
  • Foreign Investments: Stakes in projects in Kazakhstan and Namibia, with a dormant deposit in Niger.
  • Inventories: China holds an estimated 500 million pounds of uranium, a substantial stockpile that could be depleted quickly given its demand trajectory.

Chilleri expects China to continue acquiring stakes in foreign projects, particularly in Africa, where Niger and Namibia have a long history of uranium mining. He was surprised by China’s relatively limited activity in Africa to date, given the region’s supportive stance toward uranium development. Additionally, he suggested that China might explore opportunities in South America, where uranium deposits exist but are less discussed.

The impact of China’s strategies on global uranium markets could be significant:

  • Price Pressure: Increased Chinese demand for foreign supply could drive up spot and term prices, especially if inventories dwindle.
  • Supply Chain Competition: China’s aggressive acquisition of projects could limit available supply for Western utilities, tightening the market further.
  • Geopolitical Implications: China’s growing influence in uranium-producing regions like Africa and Central Asia could reshape global supply chains.

Global Atomic and the Niger Conundrum

Discussion continued on Global Atomic, a company with a high-grade deposit in Niger capable of producing 4 million pounds annually at low cost. However, the company has faced significant challenges following a 2023 coup d’état in Niger, which disrupted the country’s uranium industry and led to tensions with French operators. Chilleri expressed sympathy for Global Atomic, noting that its enterprise value appears undervalued given the quality of its asset.

The key challenges for Global Atomic include:

  • Financing: Securing project financing in a politically unstable environment is critical. Options include equity issuance, which could dilute shareholders given the current low share price, or project financing from entities like the U.S. government.
  • Political Stability: The military junta’s support for the project is encouraging, but uncertainties around property law and government policy remain.
  • Market Perception: The coup has created a perception of risk, potentially deterring investors despite the project’s strong fundamentals.

If Global Atomic can secure financing and navigate Niger’s political landscape, Chilleri believes the company is well-positioned for success, given the quality of its deposit and the global demand for uranium.

Utility Contracting and Market Dynamics

Chilleri offered a nuanced perspective on utility behavior, criticizing their short-sighted approach to contracting while acknowledging the external challenges they’ve faced. He categorized utilities into three tiers:

  1. Tier 1: Forward-thinking utilities that conduct thorough supply-demand analysis and secure term contracts proactively.
  2. Tier 2 and 3: Less strategic utilities that have been slower to adapt to market realities.

Since 2020, utilities have faced significant disruptions, including:

  • COVID-19 (2020–2022): The pandemic shifted focus to operational continuity, delaying procurement efforts.
  • Russia-Ukraine Conflict (2022–Present): Western utilities’ self-sanctioning of Russian conversion and enrichment services led to a scramble for alternative supplies, diverting attention from uranium contracting.

The rapid rise in spot prices from $55 to over $100 in 2023–2024 also prompted utilities to pause, waiting for volatility to subside. As prices retreated to the mid-$60s, utilities re-entered the spot market, viewing it as a value opportunity. Chilleri believes that with conversion and enrichment coverage secured through the decade, utilities are now refocusing on uranium term contracts.

To better align with market realities, Chilleri advocated for:

  • Longer-Term Contracts: Utilities should secure contracts with durations that reflect the long lead times of new projects.
  • Market-Related Contracts: These contracts, which tie prices to spot market indices, are gaining traction. They offer flexibility but require accurate reporting to avoid misrepresenting market dynamics.
  • Proactive Engagement: Utilities should work closely with producers to understand project timelines and secure supply before deficits worsen.

The Role of Market-Related Contracts

Market-related contracts, which tie uranium prices to spot market indices with floors and ceilings, are becoming more prevalent. For example, Cameco has discussed contracts with floors around $70 per pound and ceilings above $130, with a midpoint of approximately $100. These contracts contrast with base-escalated contracts, which are reported at lower prices (e.g., $82–$84 per pound in September 2025).

Chilleri does not expect market-related contracts to significantly increase spot price volatility, though they may cause short-term fluctuations around pricing windows. The challenge lies in reporting these contracts accurately, as their bespoke nature (varying durations, pricing mechanisms, and start/end dates) complicates standardization. While price reporters like UxC and TradeTech could provide more commentary on floors and ceilings, Chilleri believes they are unlikely to overhaul their methodologies due to the complexity involved.

Producer Leverage and Market Influence

Major producers like Cameco hold significant leverage in today’s market, primarily due to time. With supply deficits looming and utilities increasingly dependent on incumbent producers, companies like Cameco can afford to wait for higher prices and better contract terms. Chilleri highlighted Cameco’s strategy of emphasizing that “the market is coming to them,” allowing them to negotiate from a position of strength.

Producers can reshape the long-term market by:

  • Holding Firm on Prices: Refusing to sign contracts at suboptimal prices, as Cameco has done, forces utilities to meet their terms.
  • Extending Contract Durations: Longer contracts provide producers with revenue stability and incentivize investment in new capacity.
  • Leveraging Operational Flexibility: Producers with existing mines can adjust production to align with market conditions, maximizing profitability.

 

 

Addressing Viewer Questions

Our audience submitted a range of questions, which Chilleri addressed with clarity and depth:

  1. Namibian Government’s 51% Stake Proposal: A proposed requirement for the Namibian government to take a 51% stake in new mining projects could deter developers by complicating project economics. However, Chilleri views this as potentially bullish for uranium prices, as it may delay new supply, tightening the market further.
  2. Spot Market Depth: Despite perceptions of a thin spot market, Chilleri noted that recent large transactions with minimal price movement reflect inventory sales by junior miners and traders capitalizing on volatility. Sprott Physical Uranium Trust’s significant buying (e.g., 750,000 pounds in a week) removes mobile inventories, tightening the market over time.
  3. Conversion vs. Enrichment Capacity: While enrichment capacity is expanding, conversion capacity remains constrained due to historical low profitability and uncertainty around long-term contracts. Inventories and secondary sources are currently bridging the gap, but converters are hesitant to invest without guaranteed cash flows.
  4. Big Tech and Uranium Demand: The rise of AI and data centers could drive significant nuclear capacity additions, with estimates suggesting 30 gigawatts of new U.S. capacity by 2030. Even a portion of this demand would be meaningful for uranium, given the market’s limited supply growth.
  5. New Trading Firms: The entry of firms like Mercuria could enhance market liquidity, reducing volatility caused by supply-demand imbalances and improving transaction efficiency.
  6. Exit Signals: Chilleri focuses on supply-demand fundamentals rather than predicting exit timing. He estimates a cumulative supply deficit of 300 million pounds by 2040, suggesting prices will rise until sufficient new supply is brought online.
  7. CGN Mining: As a Chinese entity, CGN benefits from favorable deals with Chinese utilities and stakes in projects in Kazakhstan and Namibia. Its aggressive expansion aligns with China’s massive uranium demand.
  8. Price Declines by 2030: A significant negative demand event, such as a major policy shift away from nuclear, would be required for prices to fall below current levels. Chilleri views this as unlikely given current global sentiment.
  9. Favorite Companies and Jurisdictions: Chilleri avoids picking favorites, focusing instead on value and fundamentals. He noted Cameco’s strong business but cautioned that its valuation is high. He also highlighted the concentration of uranium supply in five jurisdictions (88% of global production) and the need for diversification.
  10. Australian Law Changes: Potential changes to Australia’s uranium mining laws could bring new deposits online, but Chilleri believes they would replace depleting supply rather than create an oversupply, given the market’s long-term deficit.

Conclusion

Timothy Chilleri’s insights paint a compelling picture of a uranium market poised for significant transformation. Structural supply deficits, driven by depleting mines and lengthy project timelines, are colliding with robust demand growth from China and emerging sectors like AI. While challenges like permitting, financing, and geopolitical risks persist, the market’s fundamentals suggest a bullish outlook for uranium prices.

Investors and utilities alike must navigate a complex landscape, balancing short-term volatility with long-term supply constraints. Chilleri’s emphasis on time as a key leverage point for producers underscores the importance of patience and strategic contracting in this evolving market.

For those interested in following Chilleri’s work, he publishes regular research and commentary on Substack at Golden Rock Research, where he provides detailed analysis of supply-demand dynamics and market developments.

 

You can find the interview with Tim here:

Disclaimer: This article/inteview is not a recommendation to buy or sell any shares, products, or services. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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