We sat down with Justin Huhn, founder of Uranium Insider, to unpack what truly shaped the uranium market in 2025—and what lies ahead for 2026 and beyond.
The discussion revealed a market defined by contrasts: a relatively stagnant uranium spot price paired with powerful equity performance, tightening physical fundamentals, and a growing sense that utilities and governments alike are running out of time.
At first glance, 2025 appeared uneventful for uranium pricing. Spot prices rose only modestly—from roughly $73 per pound at the end of 2024 to about $81 by year-end 2025. Yet focusing solely on spot prices, Huhn argues, misses the real story.
“The fact that the spot price didn’t do a whole lot during 2025, while the equities were up very, very nicely, was probably the most significant shift we saw.”
Behind the scenes, the term market told a far more constructive story. Utilities quietly returned with requests for proposals (RFPs), particularly in the United States, while financial players stepped in aggressively. The Sprott Physical Uranium Trust (SPUT) alone accumulated nearly nine million pounds of uranium during the year, helping drive secondary demand to an estimated 18 million pounds—nearly double what most analysts had modeled.
This disconnect between price visibility and market reality explains why uranium equities outperformed even as the headline commodity price appeared subdued.
Huhn emphasized that uranium is not a market where spot prices capture the full picture. Most utility purchasing happens via long-term contracts, not in the spot market that investors watch daily. In 2025, those long-term dynamics quietly tightened.
Large U.S. utilities “tested the waters” with smaller RFPs, while international players—particularly in Asia—signaled renewed demand. At the same time, financial institutions such as Goldman Sachs, Citi, and Mercuria increased their exposure, reinforcing the idea that uranium’s supply-demand imbalance is becoming impossible to ignore.
“Some of the equities are simply looking over the valley—expecting higher prices ahead.”
Goldman Sachs’ increasingly bullish forecasts and widely shared supply-demand charts added credibility to the narrative that uranium prices must rise materially to incentivize future production.
While producers and developers enjoyed strong performance, explorers were “left for dead” in Huhn’s words. Yet he sees opportunity precisely where enthusiasm is lacking.
At current prices—around $80 spot and mid-$80s term—many equities appear fairly valued. The real upside, however, lies at higher uranium prices.
“At $100, $120, $150-plus uranium, these equities have a very, very long way to go.”
Explorers, especially high-quality ones, could benefit disproportionately once higher prices are firmly established and capital flows return to the sector.
Executive orders aimed at reinvigorating the U.S. nuclear industrial base, coupled with discussions around a Strategic Uranium Reserve (SUR), added another layer of complexity. Huhn believes the market is already partially bifurcated, with U.S.-produced uranium commanding a premium—particularly material settled at the ConverDyn conversion facility.
While utilities may resist a government-backed reserve, Huhn was clear: if the U.S. military or government needs uranium, it will buy it—regardless of utility preferences.
“Any demand coming from a strategic reserve or military use isn’t baked into models, but when it shows up, it matters.”
One of the interview’s central themes was utility behavior. In 2025, U.S. utilities came close to purchasing replacement volumes, using a mix of spot buying, carry trades, and contract flex provisions. But many of those levers are now running out.
Inventories remain uneven. Some large utilities are well covered several years out, masking the vulnerability of smaller players with thin coverage. Globally, average inventory levels appear “adequate,” but averages conceal risk.
“I would be very surprised if we saw less term contracting in 2026 than in 2025.”
As cheap spot supply dries up, Huhn expects a decisive shift toward long-term contracting—likely at much higher prices.
The interview highlighted stark differences between regions. Japanese and Korean utilities are becoming more active, while Europe remains generally better covered than the U.S. China, meanwhile, remains a “black box”—but one that continues to secure long-term supply, often from Kazakhstan.
A potential large contract between India and Cameco could prove catalytic. Floor prices reportedly moving into the $90s with ceilings north of $160 would set a new benchmark for the term market.
“If sovereigns are signing on those terms, fence-sitting utilities will have to ask themselves what they’re waiting for.”
Conversion and enrichment markets, once seen as the primary bottleneck, have begun to stabilize. Conversion prices have eased, while enrichment—measured by SWU—hit record highs late in 2025. Crucially, uranium itself is now starting to move more decisively.
This sequence, Huhn noted, is exactly what he expected: downstream fuel-cycle stress eventually pulling uranium prices higher.
Questions around Kazatomprom loomed large. While full nationalization seems unlikely, Huhn sees unmistakable signs of tighter state control and a strategic pivot eastward toward Russia and China.
Joint ventures may face renegotiated terms over time, with larger state ownership and less material flowing west. The likely outcome, in Huhn’s view, is straightforward: higher prices and less flexibility for Western buyers.
Beyond utility replacement demand, secondary demand emerged as one of 2025’s defining features. Financial buying, inventory restocking, and potential sovereign accumulation all contributed meaningfully—and unpredictably.
Huhn doubled his modeled secondary demand assumptions for 2025 after seeing real-world data, underscoring just how difficult this segment is to forecast.
“It’s a hard thing to model—but it was a lot in 2025.”
As the conversation closed, one theme stood out: optionality in the uranium market is disappearing. Cheap spot supply is finite. Carry trades are limited. Flex provisions are less effective in market-referenced contracts. Utilities, governments, and financial players are converging on the same conclusion—security of supply matters.
Once remaining material in the $80–$95 range is absorbed, Huhn expects a sharp repricing.
“Once that material is gone, it’s an instant rerate past $100.”
For investors, policymakers, and utilities alike, the message was clear: the uranium market may have been quiet on the surface in 2025, but underneath, it is setting up for a decisive and potentially historic move.
Watch the interview here;
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