I sat down with legendary resource investor Rick Rule for a no-holds-barred interview that covered the full spectrum of the natural resource sector. At 73 years old and with more than five decades of experience, Rule—founder of Rule Investment Media—delivered his trademark blend of macro analysis, sector-specific insights, and hard-earned lessons on speculation versus core holdings. This extensive article distills and expands on every key point from the transcript, providing context, explanations, and actionable takeaways for investors navigating a world of debt, deficits, and commodity underinvestment.

The Oil & Gas Thesis: Structural Underinvestment Meets Cyclical Recovery

Rule opened with oil and gas, calling the sector “epic” because of prolonged underinvestment in sustaining capital expenditures (capex). He distinguishes structural underinvestment from a mere cyclical rally with three macro factors:

1. Investment cycles — Low prices kill sustaining capex. During COVID, oil crashed to zero then $20, halting investment and causing massive production declines. The subsequent rebound to $80 revived U.S. shale—until prices collapsed again. Today, global sustaining capex is deferred by an estimated $1–2 billion per day. Without it, existing production cannot be maintained.
2. Technology — Horizontal drilling, 3D seismic, fracking, and measurement-while-drilling turned the U.S. from top importer to top producer. But technology gains have limits without fresh capital.
3. Demand — Rule believes 2025 price weakness reflected a weaker global economy than consensus admits, even with curtailed Russian supply.

He warns that rewarding shareholders with dividends and buybacks at the expense of sustaining capex is “cannibalism.” National oil companies in Mexico (Pemex) and Venezuela (PDVSA) illustrate the extreme: both diverted cash to political spending (including fuel subsidies) and saw production drop ~85% over 20 years despite technological advances. Governments worldwide are taking a larger slice of free cash flow, further starving reinvestment. Rule’s base-case forecast: WTI oil, currently in the low $60s, advances to the high $80s or low $90s within three to four years. At those prices, better companies maintaining production will see a massive net-present-value rerating—because incremental revenue above $60 is almost pure margin. Portfolio action: Rule named high-quality names he bought with proceeds from other trades: ExxonMobil (less attractive at $150 than at $105), Chevron, Occidental (higher-risk due to balance sheet), and a Canadian basket yielding >6%: Suncor, Canadian Natural Resources, Freehold Royalties, Tourmaline, Birchcliff, Peyto, ARC Resources. These generate enough cash for both sustaining capex and distributions at sub-$70 oil.He also disclosed plans to “come way down the quality trail” into speculative juniors: conventional (not shale) offshore exploration in frontier and emerging markets—tiny $30–50 million market-cap companies with existing technical success in countries “most people can neither spell nor pronounce.” Statistically, with 25–33% technical success probability and 20x upside on winners versus 35–50% losses on losers, a basket of five such names offers asymmetric math he has used profitably for decades.

Gold: A Coiled Spring Finally Uncoiling—But Still Early

Rule views the gold bull market as having roots in the early 2000s, driven not by short-term cycles but by relentless erosion of fiat purchasing power. The 2024–2025 surge from ~$2,200 to $5,000 was largely “catch-up” to inflation accumulated since the 1960s—much like 1970–1973.Participation remains tiny. Central banks are the dominant buyers; they purchase physical gold, not mining stocks—explaining why bullion has outperformed equities. Retail flows into gold ETFs are still anemic. The market was so small and sellers so exhausted that modest new buying met no supply.Fundamentally, nothing has changed: U.S. debt, deficits, and unfunded entitlements are unsustainable. Rule expects the dollar’s purchasing power to decline ~75% over the next decade. Gold, historically, mirrors that decline in nominal terms. After digesting the recent move, he sees “slow and steady higher for 10 years.” Few investors have that time horizon—which is why he believes he outperforms them.Gold in Rule’s portfolio is not speculative—it is core savings, an insurance policy against other forms of capital. He expects to hold most of it until his estate sells it.

The Broken Real-Interest-Rate Framework and the 1970s Redux

Rule argues the traditional real-interest-rate framework has broken down in the near term because governments control the short end of the curve through printing and bond buying (he bluntly calls quantitative easing “counterfeiting”). They have lost control of the long end, however—markets are reasserting dominance.Official CPI (~2.6–2.9%) is fiction. Rule’s personal basket—gasoline, rent, groceries, insurance—shows ~8% compounded purchasing-power erosion. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yielding 4.16% therefore delivers a real yield of approximately –3.9%. This is 1970s territory.Resolution will be messy: a decade of reckoning where real rates eventually rise to positive levels (think Volcker at 15% when inflation was 12%). The economy will suffer, but those prepared will emerge far stronger. Rule’s blunt advice to pensioners and fixed-income investors: in 2036, $4,000 may buy what $1,000 buys today. Over-prepare; the only penalty for being wrong is extra savings.

Silver: Speculation Realized, Proceeds Redeployed

Rule treated silver as a pure speculation. He bought heavily (especially Sprott Physical Silver Trust) when it was hated at $18–$20, targeting $50–$60 once “hate dissipated.” When silver rocketed higher and generalist investors trickled in—shifting price leadership from gold to silver—his thesis played out perfectly.He sold a significant portion of physical silver and redeployed:

• 50% into silver equities (now offering operating leverage at flat or modestly higher prices);
• 25% into physical gold (moving from speculation to core savings);
• 25% into quality oil & gas (quasi-investment).

Silver stocks, valued on $40–$45 silver, could rerate sharply even if the metal price flatlines for a year, because cash flows would be calculated on $70-equivalent pricing. Physical gold remains permanent; silver and silver stocks are the “speculative edge” of the precious-metals bull

Copper: The Next Structural Bull Market (5-Year Horizon)

Rule sees copper as both investment and speculation. Near-term weakness is possible given a softer economy, but five years out the math is inescapable. Major producers need $250 billion over 10 years just to maintain current supply—$150 billion of which they don’t know how to fund. Demand grows at 2.5% compounded: AI data centers, EVs, electrification of a billion people without primary electricity. Supply-side problems compound the deficit:

• Inflation makes new capacity far more expensive than existing.
• Permitting delays are insane (Resolution deposit in Arizona—1.5% grade, billion+ tons—has been in permitting 28 years).
• Under-exploration for 30 years means the development pipeline is empty.

Existing permitted, long-life mines with sunk costs are dramatically undervalued. Tier-1 exploration discoveries will be “on steroids” profitable. Physical copper holds little interest for Rule (storage costs, no yield), but high-quality producers and selective explorers are “cheap.”

Uranium: Term Market Shift Favors Quality

Rule is a buyer of physical uranium and especially Cameco—the “finest uranium company in the world.” He was initially skeptical of Cameco’s Westinghouse acquisition but now acknowledges it is executing well.Above-ground inventory is overstated: of 150–200 million pounds, ~80 million is locked in Sprott’s trust and unavailable. Against an annual deficit of 35–40 million pounds, effective supply is tighter than headlines suggest. Utilities shifting from spot to long-term contracts will reward reliable producers like Cameco (and high-quality developers: NexGen, Paladin, etc.).Rule sold Kazatomprom after mass middle-management departures; speculators with better geopolitical insight may revisit it given its larger resource base.

The Rule Symposium: Four Days That Pay for Themselves

Rule extended a personal invitation to the upcoming Rule Symposium (link in video description). Past attendees “who didn’t make money have only themselves to blame.” Features include:

• Big-picture speakers (e.g., David Stockman’s prescient 2025 warnings).
• Veteran analysts who have survived multiple cycles.
• “Living Legends” panel—founders of multi-billion-dollar companies sharing real-world lessons.
• New “Investing Legends” and “Future Legends” (30s–50s serial winners) panels.
• Every exhibitor personally vetted—Rule owns every public company on the floor.
• 60+ hours pre-conference content, post-conference follow-ups, full-year recording access, and a money-back guarantee.

Free Resources for New and Experienced Investors

Rule reiterated two extraordinary offers at ruleinvestmentmedia.com:

1. Free portfolio grading — Submit your natural-resource holdings; his team scores each 1–10 (1 = best) with comments. Nearly 100,000 portfolios graded over 35 years—completely free, no obligation.
2. RULE Classroom — 17,000+ students, 300+ hours free content, weekly live Q&A, “Introduction to Natural Resource Investing” (5.5 hours). Upcoming: “Pitch Rick” (companies pay $5k to pitch live in front of audience) and “Shark Tank”-style deep dives for undervalued names.

Final Takeaways from a 50-Year Veteran

Rick Rule’s message is consistent and urgent:

• Think in 3–10-year timeframes, not quarters.
• Distinguish savings (gold, high-quality cash-flowing assets) from speculation (silver equities, frontier exploration, copper juniors).
• Prepare for 75% erosion in dollar purchasing power—over-preparing is cheap insurance.
• The cure for low commodity prices is low prices—underinvestment today guarantees higher prices tomorrow.
• Society has no obligation to provide for you; you must provide for yourself.

Whether you attend the symposium, submit your portfolio for grading, or simply re-read this interview, Rule’s framework offers a roadmap for the decade ahead. The supercycle in energy, precious metals, and critical minerals is not a question of “if”—only “when” and “who is positioned.”The window for thoughtful positioning is still open. As Rule would say: the market doesn’t care about your time preference—but your future self will.

WATCH THE INTERVIEW HERE: