In a wide-ranging and candid conversation, veteran natural resource investor Rick Rule joined me for the interview to discuss markets, cycles, portfolio construction, artificial intelligence, junior mining valuations, and the mindset required to succeed in commodities investing. With nearly five decades of experience behind him, Rule offered both macro-level insights and highly practical advice, blending historical perspective with current market realities.
This article distills and expands upon the key themes of the interview, organizing Rule’s views into a coherent framework for investors navigating precious metals, energy, and industrial commodities as we approach the second half of the decade.
Rule opened by highlighting his flagship event, the Natural Resources Investment Symposium in Boca Raton, Florida. Now entering its third decade, the conference stands apart for two defining features: its rigor and its accountability.
Unlike most investment conferences, exhibitors are hand-selected. Companies that appear on the floor are those Rule personally owns, ensuring a level of vetting that is rare in the industry. The result is a focus on quality rather than promotional noise.
Equally unusual is the symposium’s money-back guarantee. Over 30 years, refunds have amounted to roughly one-tenth of one percent, with the most common complaint being that the material was “too advanced.” With nearly 50 hours of programming, attendees—both in person and online—receive access to recordings to revisit complex ideas at their own pace.
Rule’s emphasis on education, discipline, and accountability at the conference mirrors his broader investment philosophy.
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Rule was clear and precise in his answer: not yet—at least not across the board.
In precious metals, Rule sees no ambiguity. Gold is firmly in a bull market, and in his view, still in its early to middle stages. A key confirmation signal has been silver’s recent outperformance relative to gold. Historically, this dynamic tends to emerge when generalist investors begin entering the precious metals space.
Silver’s lower unit price may make it psychologically more accessible, but regardless of the reason, Rule interprets the gold–silver relationship as evidence that momentum is broadening.
For copper and oil, Rule sees a different picture. Despite structural supply deficits—such as roughly 7% of global copper supply being offline—prices have responded weakly. Copper’s modest gains and oil’s softness suggest to him that near-term demand is weaker than commonly believed.
In a structurally deficient market, a supply shock should produce a far stronger price response. The muted reaction implies macroeconomic fragility rather than abundance.
Rule expects these imbalances to resolve over the next two to three years through constrained supply, potentially setting the stage for a broad-based natural resources bull market layered on top of an existing gold bull market—a rare and powerful combination he has only witnessed twice before, in the 1970s and the 2000–2010 period.
Rule provided unusual transparency into his own portfolio, offering a real-world example of how an experienced investor allocates capital.
Approximately 40% of Rule’s portfolio is liquid, including gold bullion, which he treats as a savings vehicle rather than a speculative asset. This elevated cash position is partly the result of selling a long-held real estate portfolio ahead of rising interest rates—a move he describes as fortunate, though not originally intended as a market call.
He is actively seeking to redeploy this liquidity, acknowledging that the allocation is higher than he prefers.
Of the remaining 60%:
Rule expects oil and gas to represent the fastest-growing portion of his portfolio over the next two years, citing superior business economics compared to mining.
Perhaps the most actionable advice in the interview was Rule’s description of his one-page investment memo discipline.
Before initiating any position, he writes a concise memo answering four questions:
He then benchmarks every potential investment against the best company in that sector—Franco-Nevada or Agnico Eagle for gold, Exxon for oil and gas. If the new idea cannot justify its higher risk with materially greater upside, it is rejected.
Rule credits this habit, which he adopted in the mid-1980s, as one of the most important contributors to his long-term success.
While cautious about hype, Rule is actively learning to use AI—particularly with help from younger colleagues in the Rule Classroom community.
He identified three areas where AI adds real value:
Rule warned against open-ended opinion questions, noting that AI often amplifies low-quality consensus rather than insight. Used properly, however, it can revolutionize exploration efficiency.
Rule was blunt: most junior mining companies are worthless. In his estimate, roughly 85% of the sector has little or no real value.
He also dismissed simplistic valuation metrics such as market capitalization per ounce in the ground, arguing that they ignore critical variables like resource classification, capital costs, operating costs, and time to production.
High-quality projects, by contrast, remain undervalued—particularly when senior producers’ earnings estimates are still based on gold prices far below current spot levels. This disconnect sets the stage for earnings surprises and reratings.
At the same time, majors have underinvested in exploration for two decades. Their project pipelines are thin, forcing them to consume existing assets. When meaningful discoveries emerge—especially near existing infrastructure—Rule expects eye-popping acquisition premiums.
Scale itself is also being rewarded, as seen in recent mergers that increase index inclusion, liquidity, and access to capital.
One of the richest parts of the interview was Rule’s commentary on actual companies — from mainstream producers to junior explorers — and whether he holds them in his own portfolio. Below you’ll find expanded analysis organized by company/theme, using Rule’s direct views and adding short context to clarify what each company does and why he likes or disfavors it.
“I’ve been invested in GoldMining Inc. for a very long time … I was in fact one of the founding shareholders.”
Rule explained that his long tenure in GoldMining Inc. stems from his deep familiarity with founder Amir Adnani and the company’s disciplined acquisition strategy. Over ten years of buying gold assets when no one else wanted them, GoldMining has built a large asset base purchased at low point valuations. Rule admires both Adnani’s strategic patience and his skill at building a loyal shareholder base — an intangible that “doesn’t show up on the balance sheet but does in the share price.”
Rule continues to hold the company, and he sees its evolution — particularly the spin-off of royalty assets to shareholders — as smart corporate engineering designed to unlock value incrementally.
Rule acknowledged that Fury Gold Mines is beginning to turn things around, but he does not yet own it. He noted that expectations had become so elevated that it was nearly impossible for the company to deliver outcomes that satisfied the market. While he respects the management team and believes the company’s trajectory is improving, he hasn’t yet seen sufficient new data to displace existing positions in his own holdings.
Rule said he doesn’t own either Highlander Silver or Southern Silver, and why:
He looks for deposits with material scale — generally over 100 million ounces of potentially recoverable silver — as well as economics in the best worldwide quartile for cash costs and return on capital.
Neither company meets these thresholds in Rule’s framework.
He did concede that less discriminating investors might make money on smaller or marginal assets in a rising silver market, but his own standards remain high.
Rule confirmed he does own Osisko Development, albeit having sold much of his position at higher prices so that his remaining shares are essentially zero-cost in his portfolio. He respects CEO Sean Roosen’s ability to assemble technical teams and unlock value from misunderstood systems — evidenced by success at prior projects like Mallard Lake. Rule described Roosen’s work as getting “the data first and letting the geology speak,” a central tenet of modern mineral discovery.
Rule said he doesn’t own Scotty Resources directly, but holds what he called a “library card” — implying interest without a meaningful position. He expressed strong interest in the Golden Triangle district in northern British Columbia and highlighted the importance of understanding regional geology and First Nation partnerships when evaluating companies there. Rather than a pure stand-alone bet, he sees Scotty as part of a bigger district story that could benefit from consolidation.
Rule owns McEwen Mining and described it as a “horse with a top-caliber jockey” — referring to founder Rob McEwen’s long track record and significant personal investment in the company. A core reason for his interest is the company’s large copper deposit in Argentina — a jurisdiction he views as rapidly improving politically. While he didn’t characterize it as cheap today, he still believes it offers a strong upside case over time.
Rule is bullish on Royal Gold because he prefers royalty and streaming companies, which earn returns without operating risk. He noted:
“I like a business where … I don’t get any capital calls or operating cost bills.”
He also pointed out that Royal Gold often trades at a discount to peers like Franco-Nevada and Wheaton Precious Metals. He sees this discount either shrinking — boosting the stock price — or potentially triggering acquisition interest by larger royalty companies, both of which would be positive outcomes for shareholders. In short, he views Royal Gold as a win-win investment, and yes — he owns it.
Rule spoke positively about Sovereign Metals, a rutile and graphite developer, acknowledging its tier-one scale — with large rutile and graphite resources that few investors understand or follow. However:
“The path in front of them is long … and the market will continue to be weak.”
He holds Sovereign but cautioned that owners must be prepared for volatile performance and a multi-year time horizon to realize the asset’s potential. His attitude toward it typifies his broader philosophy: bet on scale and quality, but respect volatility.
When asked about explorers with strong silver assets, Rule reiterated a strict rule of thumb:
“I want a deposit that matters … likely to have over 100 million ounces.”
He explained that optionality and clear pathways to production matter more than headlines or near-term market sentiment. That’s why many smaller or speculative silver names, even if technically promising, don’t rise to his personal threshold for ownership unless justified by exceptional scale or cost-curve advantages.
Rule does own Hot Chili, a copper developer with a large, spread-out portfolio of deposits in Chile. He likes that the properties are located at modest elevations with good infrastructure and access to water, power, and transportation — an important cost advantage in copper mining.
His main concern is the need for a high-grade starter pit to generate early cash flow. He’s encouraged by exploration results but still awaits confirmation before feeling fully confident in the company’s economic model.
Rule also owns Chalice (a nickel project), agreeing with his broader view that nickel — especially sulfide nickel — is a sector out of favor. He acknowledges challenges in benchmarking returns against Indonesian lateritic producers, but the size and quality of the deposit, along with management competence, justify a position if priced attractively.
Rule’s interest in nickel is a good example of how he will break his own rules in deeply hated markets if the optionality is compelling.
Rule said he does not own Lotus, and he’s cautious on names like Denison Mines because he isn’t yet convinced about new technologies or scalability. On Global Atomic, he sees geopolitical challenges in Niger as a key risk factor preventing a position until there’s greater clarity — anything that affects export routes and financing can materially skew his risk calculations.
Across these discussions, several themes emerge:
Rule prefers scale, economics, and quality management teams.
He is comfortable holding businesses he deeply understands and respects, even through volatility.
Ownership is strictly merit-based, not narrative-driven — and he will articulate why he doesn’t own something as clearly as why he does.
His portfolio choices reflect this disciplined framework, with positions in royalty streams, gold equities, industrial metals, and selective juniors that meet his rigorous criteria.
Rule closed with advice aimed squarely at newcomers to the sector.
Success, he argued, requires a willingness to invest 10–15 hours per week in self-education. Learning geology is not only possible while working full-time—it is essential. He recommended foundational texts on ore deposits and participation in collaborative learning communities such as the Rule Classroom.
The first and most important investment, Rule emphasized, is not a stock—it is intellectual development. The greatest risk most investors face sits between their ears, and only disciplined work reduces it.
Rick Rule’s conversation was not a forecast-heavy performance, but a masterclass in probabilistic thinking, discipline, and humility. His outlook combines optimism about long-term commodity fundamentals with realism about volatility, cycles, and human behavior.
For investors willing to do the work, tolerate discomfort, and think independently, Rule believes the coming years—particularly in gold and eventually in industrial commodities—may offer one more extraordinary opportunity.
WATCH THE INTERVIEW HERE
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