Precious metals expert Robert Kientz discussed the escalating chaos in the gold and silver markets. Kientz, a seasoned analyst with over 16 years of experience, painted a vivid picture of tightening supplies, potential market manipulation, and a historic bull run for precious metals. Drawing from real-time observations in wholesale and retail markets, Kientz warned of an imminent "silver squeeze" that could reshape global economies.

ETF Inflows: The First Sign of a Precious Metals Boom

Kientz began by emphasizing the role of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) as a leading indicator of retail investor interest. Over the past six months, he noted massive inflows into silver and gold ETFs, with $200 billion pouring into SLV (the primary silver ETF) and $500 billion into broader gold ETFs in August alone. While not all of this capital originated in the U.S., it reflects a global resurgence of "generalist investors" entering the market—a pattern observed during previous booms, such as 2008-2011, 2016, and the 2020-2021 pandemic surge.

"This is always a sign of a boom," Kientz explained. "It always has been." He linked this ETF activity to the subsequent rush into physical metals, which he predicted weeks before it materialized. As the head of Kinesis's U.S. physical bullion operations, Kientz shared firsthand experiences: his store ran out of gold earlier this year, and a single buyer purchased over a million dollars in silver within the last three weeks. This retail demand has now cascaded into widespread shortages.

Physical Market Tightness: Sold-Out Sovereign Coins and Rising Premiums

The core of the discussion centered on tangible signs of supply tightening in the physical markets. Kientz highlighted the sell-out of the most popular products: American Gold and Silver Eagles (the top choice in the U.S.) and Canadian Gold and Silver Maple Leaf (a close second). By early this week, wholesalers in major hubs like Dallas-Fort Worth—home to giants like Dillon Gage and Elemetal—had only 288 American Silver Eagles left in inventory. Gold Eagles and Canadian Maples were completely depleted overnight.

"When you see the ETFs start to have a lot of inflows and you see a confirmation signal that American gold and silver eagles and the Canadian gold and silver maple leaves are sold out, then that's when you know you're in the middle of a precious metals boom," Kientz stated.

Retailers like APMEX, JM Bullion, and SD Bullion anticipated this rush, stocking up from wholesalers, which has left the wholesale market "completely bankrupt." Premiums—the markup over spot price—are skyrocketing. At APMEX, American Silver Eagle premiums have hit $12 per ounce, with Kientz predicting a rise to $20 by week's end. In extreme scenarios, he foresees premiums doubling the spot price, as seen during a brief shortage two years ago when the U.S. Mint couldn't keep up.

This tightness extends beyond North America. Sovereign coins from mints like the Austrian Philharmonic, UK Britannia, and Australian Perth are also selling out. What's left? Generic rounds and bars from independent mints, though Kientz expects their premiums to rise soon as demand shifts.

Seasonal factors amplify the issue: the "love trade" in Asia, driven by festivals like Diwali, weddings, and dowries, boosts third- and fourth-quarter demand. Combined with an unusually strong summer market in the West, this has overwhelmed global supply chains.

Global Shortages and the Unique Vulnerability of Silver

Kientz delved into the structural reasons behind these shortages, distinguishing between gold and silver. Gold, with most of its historical supply still above ground, can potentially recirculate at higher prices. Silver, however, faces a dire predicament: miners have run a billion-ounce deficit over the past four to five years, with only 28% recovered as scrap. The rest is consumed in industrial applications—electronics, healthcare, solar panels, and military hardware like Tomahawk missiles, where 500 ounces per missile are "evaporated" in use.

Refineries worldwide are at full capacity and refusing new business, exacerbating the crunch. Reports from Bloomberg indicate COMEX silver was shipped to London to ease constraints, but futures markets remain elevated, signaling skepticism about long-term relief. Major institutions echo this alarm: TD Securities has declared the physical silver squeeze "real this time," while Robert Gottlieb of JP Morgan—the world's largest silver trader—warned, "We're running out of silver."

"This is a legitimate silver squeeze going on," Kientz asserted. "Silver prices are going to launch even faster and higher than gold is going right now."

Suspicious Market Activity: The "Shadow Takedown" on COMEX

A particularly intriguing segment addressed potential manipulation during a recent price smash. On October 21, gold and silver experienced one of the largest takedowns in nearly a decade on the COMEX futures market. Yet, daily data snapshots—typically available at 9:30 a.m. and 1:30 p.m. ET—were missing from the CME Group's website, despite trading continuing.

Kientz, who has monitored COMEX for six years, called this unprecedented. He linked it to Amazon Web Services (AWS) outages, which affected data centers powering CME's servers. "If you can't trade, how can you have the biggest takedown in the last 10 years?" he questioned. Compounding suspicions: the CFTC, the market regulator, has been in partial shutdown since September 23, unable to monitor trades due to a government impasse.

This "goofy stuff," as Kientz termed it, could enable off-market trades by major banks, allowing manipulation amid physical shortages. He tied it to broader issues, like strained U.S. power grids from data centers, and historical fines (e.g., JP Morgan's $920 million penalty for spoofing in 2020).

Such events, he argued, will exacerbate supply constraints, pushing premiums higher and triggering panic buying. "Absolutely, we'll create a panic," he said.

Government Responses: Declaring Silver Critical and Forging Alliances

Governments are responding to these shortages. This summer, the U.S. declared silver a critical mineral—a move Kientz has advocated for 16 years. Two weeks ago, $4 billion was allocated: $1.5 billion to purchase silver and $2.5 billion to rebuild mining and processing infrastructure. Earlier this week, a historic $8.5 billion deal with Australia secured supplies of critical minerals, including silver, rare earths, and scandium.

Kientz sees this as an admission of widespread shortages, with China dominating 95% of rare earth refining. However, he warns it's "too little too late" for silver: new mines take five to seven years to develop, even with fast-tracking.

On the same day as the interview, India announced silver as collateral for bank loans (up to 10 kg, versus 1 kg for gold), establishing a 10:1 benchmark. Kientz praised this as "brilliant," noting India's surging silver imports and smuggling amid past gold restrictions. It strengthens their currency and addresses debt, positioning silver as a monetary asset.

Strategies for Retail Investors: Act Now to Avoid Overpaying

For retail buyers, Kientz advised securing physical metals immediately, especially silver. In the U.S., bars are available below spot due to excess inventory, while sovereign coins command high premiums. "Go to the independent mint coins and bars," he recommended. Opt for reputable dealers like those with magnetic resistance testers to verify authenticity, as fakes from China and Mexico have surfaced.

He also highlighted "junk silver" (pre-1965 U.S. coins) as a once-undervalued option, though premiums have risen. The key: don't wait. "If you're interested in buying silver, do not wait... I don't know if we have three months of silver across the world."

Future Outlook: Explosive Prices and a Shift to Metal-Backed Valuation

Looking ahead, Kientz is ultra-bullish. Amid de-dollarization—foreign dollar reserves dipping below 50% for the first time—and impending recessions, he predicts gold at $10,000 and silver at $600-$1,000 or more per ounce within years. "We're not pricing gold and silver in dollars anymore. The markets are pricing everything in gold and silver," he said, citing Basel III's elevation of gold and India's silver move.

Pullbacks are expected, but technical analysts like Avi Gilburt signal a "super bull run" if silver breaches $48.30—a threshold crossed that morning. With inflation potentially hitting 30-50% annually in the U.S., precious metals will serve as a hedge against currency collapse and CBDCs.

Kientz views this as part of "Commodity Wars," an existential crisis where silver shortages threaten military, tech, and healthcare sectors globally.

Conclusion: Precious Metals as the Ultimate Safe Haven

Robert Kientz's analysis underscores a pivotal moment for gold and silver: from ETF inflows to global shortages, market anomalies, and government interventions, the stage is set for dramatic price surges. Retail investors should heed his call to act swiftly with trusted sources. As economies grapple with inflation, de-dollarization, and resource wars, precious metals emerge not just as investments, but as de facto money.

For more from Kientz, follow him on X at @freedom_rpt, on YouTube at Freedom Report, or subscribe to his Substack at freedomrpt.substack.com.

Watch the interview here:

Disclaimer: This article/interview is not a recommendation to buy any shares, products, or services. Always conduct your due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.