Michael Oliver, a renowned financial analyst and founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, discusses critical market trends and risks for investors in 2025. Oliver, known for his momentum-based technical analysis, shared his perspectives on undervalued assets, market bubbles, and the potential for significant shifts in investor behavior.

Gold: The Underestimated Asset

Oliver emphasized that gold has been a standout performer over the past decade, consistently outpacing the S&P 500 across various time frames—three, five, and ten years. Despite this, American investors remain heavily underexposed to precious metals, clinging to a "phobia" of monetary metals in favor of the stock market's allure. Oliver argues that this oversight is a mistake, as gold has already demonstrated superior returns and is poised for further gains.

Central bank interventions, monetary excesses, and anticipated Federal Reserve rate cuts—potentially four in 2025, with a half-point cut in September—are driving investor sentiment toward stocks. However, Oliver warns that history suggests rate cuts often precede market downturns. He cites the 2000 and 2007 stock market tops, where Fed rate cuts followed pauses in rate hikes, leading to significant declines. These periods saw gold and Treasury bonds (T-bonds) emerge as safe havens, though Oliver notes that T-bonds are currently less attractive due to their lackluster performance since late 2022.

Oliver predicts a shift in capital flows as investors recognize the stock market's vulnerability. Gold miners, already outperforming gold itself, are a leading indicator of this shift. As the stock market bubble bursts, Oliver expects more money to flow into precious metals, particularly silver, which he sees as a top investment opportunity.

Silver: A Breakout in Progress

Silver, according to Oliver, has already broken out of a long-term consolidation phase that began in 2021. After repeatedly testing the $2,000 level for gold and facing sell-offs, silver surged past $25.26 in March 2024, signaling a renewed momentum. Despite zigzagging between $32.70 and $35 since May 2024, silver's momentum indicators suggest it is poised for a significant rally. Oliver projects silver could reach $50 to $70 by year-end, with the potential to climb as high as $200 in real dollar terms, matching its inflation-adjusted highs from 1980 and 2011.

The resilience of gold and silver miners, which are now holding up better than gold on down days, underscores this trend. Oliver sees silver as a preferred investment over gold due to its stronger momentum and potential for outsized gains.

Stock Market: A Bubble on the Brink

Oliver identifies the NASDAQ 100, driven by a handful of tech giants, as the epicenter of a potential market bubble. Since its 2009 low, the NASDAQ 100 has risen 19-fold, far outpacing the S&P 500’s 10-fold increase. This unprecedented growth, fueled by a decade of low interest rates and monetary expansion, has created a "duration and dementia" unlike anything in the past century of U.S. market history.

However, Oliver warns that momentum indicators are flashing warning signs. The NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500 made marginal new highs in 2025, but these gains lack confirmation from long-term momentum, which broke down earlier in the year. Oliver describes the current rally as "bumping the underside of the bridge it blew up," suggesting that price action is deceptive and a significant correction looms.

The anticipated Fed rate cuts could act as a "tombstone" event, similar to 2000 and 2007, where markets peaked shortly after rate cuts and then crashed. Oliver highlights the weakening leadership within the market, noting that only a few of the "Magnificent 7" tech stocks are driving gains, while small-cap indices like the Russell 2000 lag significantly. Sectors like banking and commercial real estate also show signs of weakness, further undermining the market’s foundation.

AI and Tech: Echoes of the Dotcom Bubble

The hype surrounding artificial intelligence (AI) and high-growth tech stocks draws parallels to the dotcom bubble of 2000. Oliver acknowledges that AI’s transformative potential is real, much like the internet’s promise in the late 1990s. However, he cautions that markets often overshoot, chasing narratives "three times too far" before correcting. Stocks like Nvidia and Microsoft, which have led the tech rally, are likely to spearhead any downside move. The NASDAQ 100’s 82% drop from 2000 to 2002 serves as a historical precedent, despite the underlying technology proving revolutionary.

Oliver stresses that the pricing issue, not the validity of AI, is the concern. Overvaluation driven by speculative fervor could lead to a sharp correction, even if the long-term outlook for AI remains positive.

Bitcoin: A Psychological Ambush

Bitcoin, once a peripheral market, now moves in lockstep with the NASDAQ 100, reflecting its growing institutional adoption. Oliver notes that Bitcoin’s price action since 2022 mirrors the NASDAQ’s, with both peaking at key levels (Bitcoin at $120,000) and pulling back in tandem. However, long-term momentum indicators for Bitcoin are concerning. While price charts show a staircase pattern of higher highs and lows, quarterly momentum reveals a floor structure that has held three times since 2023 but is at risk of breaking.

If Bitcoin falls below $110,000—a level that previously acted as resistance—it could signal a major reversal. Oliver compares this setup to the 1987 stock market crash, where a similar momentum structure preceded a collapse. A drop below $105,000 in the fourth quarter of 2025 could trigger a psychological "ambush" for investors, with ripple effects across the NASDAQ 100 and broader markets. Oliver sees Bitcoin’s institutional linkage as amplifying its vulnerability, making it a critical market to watch.

Energy and Commodities: A Sleeping Giant

Oil and commodity markets are on the cusp of a breakout, according to Oliver. Crude oil, which has traded in a sideways range between $60 and $70 since its 2022 peak, is approaching a momentum breakout level. A monthly close above $70 in August or September 2025 could signal a significant upturn, with the breakout threshold dropping to around $68 in the next quarter. Oil stocks, represented by the XLE ETF, have remained resilient, staying closer to their highs than oil prices.

Oliver sees commodities, including agricultural stocks and base metal miners, as an alternative investment within the stock market. The Bloomberg Commodity Index is within 5-6% of a breakout level, and a synchronized move in oil and commodities could offer a hedge against a declining stock market. Historically, commodities have risen during periods of economic downturn and inflation, as seen in 1979-1980 and 2007-2009.

Investment Strategy: Prioritizing Precious Metals

Oliver’s investment approach is clear: prioritize silver, gold, and their respective miners over traditional assets like stocks and T-bonds. He views T-bonds as a risky trade, not a long-term investment, due to the U.S. government’s debt crisis. While commodities offer diversification within the stock market, they are unlikely to outperform precious metals. Oliver avoids specific portfolio allocations, leaving those decisions to individual investors or advisors, but he personally holds positions in silver and gold miners.

For investors seeking to explore his analysis, Oliver directs them to Momentum Structural Analysis website (olivermsa.com), where they can access sample reports and learn about his momentum-based approach, which prioritizes momentum over price action.

Conclusion

Michael Oliver’s insights paint a picture of a market at a crossroads, with overvalued tech stocks and Bitcoin facing significant risks, while precious metals—particularly silver—offer a compelling alternative. His momentum-based analysis highlights the disconnect between price and underlying strength in key markets, warning of a potential stock market correction triggered by Fed rate cuts. As investors navigate this volatile environment, Oliver’s focus on gold, silver, and commodities provides a roadmap for capitalizing on emerging opportunities while avoiding the pitfalls of a bursting bubble.

You can find the interview with Michael Oliver here: https://youtu.be/f6BV3DLffcw?si=e-JSJBvYbtROqbsu

Disclaimer: This article – interview is not a recommendation to buy or sell any shares, products, or services. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.