In an era marked by geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and evolving financial innovations, the precious metals market continues to captivate investors and analysts alike. On February 16, 2026, as global markets grapple with the aftermath of recent volatility, we turn to the wisdom of Keith Wiener, founder and CEO of Monetary Metals.
Wiener delved into the intricacies of his company's newly released Gold Outlook Report for 2026.
This comprehensive document has sparked widespread debate in the industry, offering a nuanced perspective on the interplay between fiat currencies, gold, silver, and emerging monetary paradigms.
Drawing from deep monetary theory and real-world market observations, Wiener's analysis challenges conventional wisdom and highlights the enduring appeal of precious metals.
This article synthesizes the key takeaways from the interview, exploring the bull markets in gold and silver, currency competitions, demand dynamics, innovative yield structures, and Wiener's candid views on a potential gold standard and Bitcoin. As markets recover from the dramatic January 29 correction—where silver plummeted from $125 to $75—Wiener's insights provide a roadmap for understanding what lies ahead in 2026.
The 2026 Gold Outlook Report: A Shift in Monetary Paradigms
Monetary Metals' Gold Outlook Report for 2026 represents a pivotal evolution in precious metals forecasting. Wiener describes a fundamental shift: moving away from apocalyptic fears of outright monetary collapse toward a more competitive landscape where fiat currencies vie against each other—and ultimately against gold as a true form of money.In the interview, Wiener asserts that both gold and silver remain firmly in bull markets despite recent turbulence. “Think gold and silver continue to be in bull markets,” he states, acknowledging the “violent correction” on January 29 but emphasizing its role in flushing out excessive leverage. Silver’s near-vertical ascent, fueled by 20-to-1 leverage in futures markets, culminated in a dramatic drop, serving as a cautionary tale. Wiener critiques the mainstream quantity theory of money, which posits that price levels are directly proportional to money supply. Instead, he introduces his own Theory of Interest and Prices, published in seven parts, which underscores the “stateful” nature of economies—where human memory and past experiences influence behavior.
For 2026, Wiener identifies key winners in this currency-money competition: the U.S. dollar maintains dominance, bolstered by stablecoins that democratize access to dollars in regions plagued by inefficient markets or capital controls. “The world is dollarizing even more,” he notes, predicting that local currencies will cede ground as governments fight losing battles against this trend. However, gold emerges as the ultimate victor in international settlements, particularly amid trade wars and sanctions. Countries like Russia and India, frustrated with dollar hegemony, experiment with alternatives like rupees but find them inadequate. “If India were to pay in gold, that’s a universal currency that everybody recognizes,” Wiener explains, though he laments the reluctance of global elites—steeped in Keynesian and monetarist doctrines—to embrace it.
This competition, Wiener predicts, will drive gold and silver prices higher through 2026. Each economic crisis awakens more individuals to the flaws of irredeemable fiat currencies—“a fraudulent promise” that governments force upon citizens. Post-dot-com bust, post-2008 financial crisis, post-COVID stimulus, and now amid trade wars, waves of buying without corresponding selling pressure create stepwise price increases. Geopolitical flashpoints, such as conflicts in Venezuela and Greenland, amplify uncertainty, pushing investors toward metals as a hedge.Compared to last year’s report—which accurately foresaw gold surging (though exact percentages weren’t specified in the interview)—this edition refines the analysis with additional macro drivers. Wiener’s conservative forecast last year pegged gold at $3,700 and silver at $37; for 2026, he hints at even stronger upward momentum, tempered by a desire to avoid sensationalism. “If the price overshoots my target, I’m happy with that,” he says, prioritizing caution to prevent investors from overleveraging.
Market Dynamics: Leverage, Volatility, and Scarcity Signals
Wiener’s discussion of market mechanics reveals a sophisticated approach beyond simple price charts. He highlights the perils of leverage, which amplified silver’s vertical rise and subsequent crash. “Leverage just overextends you and then you get that volatility,” he warns, advocating for smoother markets without speculative frenzy. Post-correction, traders’ “searing memory” of losses introduces caution, reducing leverage and stabilizing prices—a boon for long-term holders.A cornerstone of Wiener’s analysis is the “basis” and “co-basis”—spreads between spot and futures prices that signal market health. In rising markets, a widening basis indicates futures-driven speculation, often short-lived.
Conversely, a narrowing basis or backwardation (where spot exceeds futures) points to genuine scarcity from physical metal buying. “The co-basis in silver is actually above zero… that’s called backwardation,” Wiener observes, interpreting it as a bullish indicator for durable rallies in both metals throughout 2026.This scarcity narrative ties into broader economic shifts. Amid trade wars, tariffs on goods like French wine inflict not just economic but symbolic damage, fueling resentment toward U.S. policies.
While nations crave dollars for transactions—Wiener recounts taxi drivers abroad eagerly accepting $20 bills—they seek alternatives. Gold, despite official aversion, stands as the only viable universal medium.
Demand Drivers: Monetary vs. Industrial, and the Absent Buyers
Wiener draws a sharp distinction between monetary and industrial demand, arguing that silver faces a structural deficit—but not in the way quantity theorists claim. Industrial uses, from solar panels to antimicrobial fabrics and switch contacts, have historically demonetized silver, dispersing it into non-recoverable forms. However, recent trends reverse this: monetary demand surges as people hoard silver for its intrinsic value, not utility.“The big segment that I would say is absent is Western retail,” Wiener notes, attributing their sidelining to years of conditioning.
From 2011’s peak through 2018–2019’s sideways grind, every price blip reversed, training investors like “Pavlov’s dogs” to avoid buying highs. Meanwhile, premiums on numismatic coins have collapsed, signaling a preference for monetary forms over collectibles or tableware. “The market is saying we value gold in money form, not in all these other forms.”At current prices—silver around $80—industrial “thrifting” accelerates, with engineers redesigning products to use less silver. This reduces consumption, countering the deficit narrative and reinforcing remonetization.
Wiener flips the script: past deficits indicated demonetization, but now, vengeance-driven remonetization elevates silver’s premium as a monetary asset.
Innovations in Gold: Yield-Bearing Structures and Tokenization
Monetary Metals stands out for its focus on yield on gold, paid in gold—eliminating the traditional trade-off between holding metals and earning income. Historically, gold ownership incurred costs like storage fees or theft risks. “If you have a yield, that completely changes the equation,” Wiener explains, positioning gold as a portfolio enhancer that reduces volatility and boosts returns.Innovations like tokenization and blockchain integration amplify this. Through partnerships, such as with StreamX’s “Goldy” (GLDY) token, Monetary Metals offers T+0 settlement and blockchain transparency. “We want to have a product for the Swiss banking system… for US accredited investors… and tokens,” Wiener says, anticipating significant growth in 2026. These structures democratize access, attracting diverse investors and potentially accelerating adoption amid fiat disillusionment.
The Gold Standard: A Vision for Free-Market Money
Wiener’s advocacy for a gold standard is unequivocal, though nuanced. As founder of the Gold Standard Institute USA, he rejects the flawed Bretton Woods system—designed by Soviet sympathizer Harry Dexter White as a “lose-lose” proposition. Instead, he envisions a free market in money and credit, with government limited to enforcing contracts. “If people were not coerced… they would choose gold,” he argues, citing its historical superiority.While acknowledging realism’s challenges, Wiener sees gold’s return as inevitable, given fiat’s failures. “The paper system isn’t really working anymore,” he concludes, urging a shift toward private institutions providing bills, bonds, and currencies backed by gold.
Bitcoin: A Skeptical Outlook on the Digital Darling
No discussion of alternative monies escapes Bitcoin, and Wiener pulls no punches. He predicts a long-term trajectory to zero, criticizing Bitcoiners’ lack of curiosity as they pivot from failed claims: from transaction currency to store of value, censorship-proof asset, and beyond. “They just smoothly pivot… showing no curiosity as to why the last one failed,” he observes.Key flaws include miners’ unsustainable losses, government seizures (e.g., billions in confiscated Bitcoin), and stalled adoption—far from the “fastest ever” curve once touted. While shorting Bitcoin risks ruin—“the market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent”—Wiener foresees psychology shifting when fundamentals prevail, echoing historical “madness of crowds.”
Conclusion:
Charting a Path Forward in Uncertain TimesKeith Wiener’s interview paints a compelling picture of 2026 as a year of opportunity and caution in precious metals. With gold and silver poised for gains amid currency rivalries, geopolitical risks, and innovative yields, investors are urged to prioritize due diligence over speculation. As Wiener reminds us, each crisis unveils fiat’s frailties, drawing more toward gold’s timeless stability.To access the Gold Outlook Report for 2026, visit monetary-metals.com. Follow Wiener on X (formerly Twitter) at@realKeithWiener for ongoing insights. In a world of irredeemable promises, Wiener’s voice offers a grounded, independent perspective—essential reading for anyone navigating the monetary maze.
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