Robert Kientz, a seasoned expert with over 20 years in finance, specializing in precious metals, discussed the outlook for gold and silver in 2025 and beyond.

Gold’s Performance in 2025: A Bullish Outlook

Kientz is optimistic about gold’s trajectory, citing a JP Morgan estimate that projects gold reaching $3,675 by Q4 2025 and potentially hitting $4,000 by mid-2026. He notes that gold’s recent 18-month performance mirrors the aggressive 2009–2011 rally, having broken out of all technical indicators, suggesting significant upside potential. Silver, while lagging, is also poised for growth, with Kientz predicting it could reach $39–$41 in the medium term, facing resistance before potentially climbing further if gold continues its ascent.

Key Macroeconomic Drivers

Several macroeconomic factors are fueling this bullish outlook:

· Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing conflicts and trade disputes, such as Russia’s challenge to Western pricing mechanisms and China’s stance on Taiwan, are driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

· De-Dollarization: Central banks globally are reducing U.S. dollar reserves, with international reserves falling below 50% in dollars for the first time in decades. Countries like Russia and China are shifting to local currencies and gold, undermining the dollar’s dominance.

· Fiscal Concerns: The U.S.’s escalating debt, projected to reach $40 trillion, raises fears of a treasury market collapse, further boosting gold’s appeal as a hedge against currency devaluation.

· Central Bank Policies: Aggressive gold purchases by nations like China, India, Poland, and Kazakhstan reflect a lack of trust in Western financial systems, reinforcing gold’s role as a reserve asset.

COMEX and Market Manipulation Concerns

Kientz addressed long-standing skepticism about the COMEX and LBMA, particularly regarding the accuracy of reported gold and silver inventories. He highlighted systemic issues that suggest price manipulation:

· Insufficient Oversight: The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) lacks the resources to effectively monitor markets. Kientz recounted conversations with former CFTC officials, including Bart Chilton, who acknowledged manipulation but cited inadequate legislative authority to act.

· Data Integrity Issues: A cyberattack revealed that the CFTC and CME Group rely on traders to provide market data, raising concerns about potential tampering. Kientz described this as “the fox watching the henhouse,” undermining confidence in reported prices.

· Historical Context: Research by Professor Jerry Markham indicates that commodities markets have been manipulated for centuries, with legislation consistently failing to provide enforceable solutions.

Kientz argues that these issues, combined with Russia’s move to establish a St. Petersburg exchange to challenge the LBMA and COMEX, signal a shift in global gold pricing power from West to East. This could lead to higher prices as markets adjust to new dynamics.

Central Bank Gold Buying and Global Pricing Shifts

Central banks’ aggressive gold purchases, led by countries like China, India, Poland, and Kazakhstan, are reshaping the gold market. Kientz notes that these nations are increasingly relying on domestically produced and refined gold, bypassing Western exchanges due to pricing distrust and rumored shortages. For instance:

· Russia’s Nationalization: As the second-largest gold producer, Russia has nationalized its third-largest mine and is building an internationally focused exchange in St. Petersburg to rival the LBMA.

· Local Production: Countries are investing in refining capacity to handle their own gold, reducing dependence on COMEX and LBMA.

· Repatriation Efforts: Nations like Germany and India are bringing gold reserves back from Western vaults, reflecting a lack of trust in Western custodians.

This trend suggests a future where Eastern markets, particularly the Shanghai and St. Petersburg exchanges, may dominate global gold pricing, potentially leading to greater price transparency or new forms of manipulation.

Navigating the Physical vs. Paper Price Disconnect

Kientz emphasized a critical disconnect between physical and paper gold and silver prices. While paper prices (e.g., futures contracts) are influenced by derivatives, physical demand is surging, particularly outside the U.S. He noted:

· Low U.S. Retail Demand: Premiums on American Eagles and bullion remain stable, indicating that the U.S. public has not yet entered the market en masse. However, Kientz warns that if retail demand spikes, supply constraints could cause premiums to soar.

· Silver Shortages: Global free-floating silver supplies are critically low, with London’s market reportedly operating on a fractional reserve basis. Kientz estimates that if every U.S. citizen bought one ounce of silver, the global supply would be exhausted, potentially triggering a price surge.

· Investment Strategy: Investors should focus on physical metals to hedge against potential market disruptions, as paper products like ETFs may not provide physical delivery.

Fort Knox and Investor Confidence

Uncertainty surrounding U.S. gold reserves, particularly at Fort Knox and the New York Fed, continues to fuel skepticism. Kientz highlighted:

· Lack of Transparency: The U.S. has not conducted a public gold audit in 70 years, despite calls from figures like President Trump. Claims that the gold is of lower quality or rehypothecated (multiple claims on the same gold) persist.

· Impact on Confidence: The absence of a credible, third-party audit undermines gold’s credibility as a safe-haven asset. Kientz advocates for a transparent audit by a firm like Bureau Veritas to restore trust.

Gold in a Potential Market Meltdown

In a hypothetical 2026 market crash driven by debt defaults or equity sell-offs, Kientz expects gold to follow a historical pattern:

· Initial Decline: During a crisis, gold and silver prices may dip briefly as investors sell derivatives for liquidity to cover margin calls.

· Subsequent Surge: As economic uncertainty deepens, physical demand typically drives prices higher. Kientz predicts that gold could become “unobtainium,” with prices no longer denominated in dollars but in gold itself, especially if the U.S. dollar loses its reserve status.

· Capital Controls: Kientz warns of potential U.S. restrictions on gold ownership, similar to historical bans, as a response to a failing dollar or treasury market. Countries like Turkey and BRICS nations are already implementing commodity export controls, signaling broader economic instability.

Price Predictions for 2027

Looking ahead to July 2027, Kientz offered bold price projections:

· Gold: At least $5,000 per ounce, driven by continued de-dollarization and global economic uncertainty.

· Silver: $250 per ounce, reflecting industrial shortages, investor demand, and nationalization trends. Silver’s price elasticity is higher due to its affordability compared to gold, making it attractive to retail investors.

Kientz cautioned that these prices assume a gradual currency devaluation. A full currency reset, potentially involving stablecoins or central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), could push prices even higher, with gold and silver reverting to their intrinsic value as money.

Conclusion

Robert Kientz’s insights paint a compelling picture of a gold and silver market on the cusp of significant change. Driven by geopolitical shifts, de-dollarization, and central bank buying, gold and silver are poised for substantial price increases in 2025 and beyond. However, concerns about market manipulation, supply shortages, and lack of transparency in Western reserves highlight the importance of physical ownership for investors. As global pricing power shifts eastward, the precious metals market may see unprecedented volatility and opportunity in the coming years.

For more insights from Robert Kientz, follow him on The Freedom Report on Twitter and YouTube, or check out his bimonthly videos on Kinesis’s Live from the Vault channel. Additionally, track his legislative efforts at Citizens4SoundMoney.org to stay updated on gold legal tender initiatives.

Disclaimer: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any securities, products, or services. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.