Navigating the Commodity Supercycle: Insights from Lobo Tiggre

In the volatile world of commodities investing, where geopolitical tremors and macroeconomic shifts can turn fortunes overnight, few voices cut through the noise with the clarity and candor of Lobo Tiggre. As the founder of the Independent Speculator, Tiggre has built a reputation as a no-nonsense speculator who blends on-the-ground due diligence with sharp macroeconomic analysis. In this exclusive interview, Tiggre dissected the forces shaping the commodities landscape through the end of 2025 and into the next decade. Tiggre's insights reveal a market poised for inflation, disruption, and opportunity—for those who tread carefully.

This isn't your typical bull-market cheerleading. Tiggre, ever the cautious optimist, warns of near-term headwinds while highlighting structural tailwinds that could propel "everything real" higher. As he puts it, in a world where governments print money with abandon, tangible assets like commodities remain the ultimate hedge. Buckle up: what follows is a deep dive into the interview's key themes, laced with Tiggre's unfiltered quotes and analysis.

The Macro Backdrop: Trump Shock 2.0 and the Inflationary Imperative

Tiggre kicked off the conversation with a sobering reminder: the broader macroeconomic environment is anything but settled. While Wall Street pats itself on the back for surviving the initial "Trump shock" post-inauguration—dubbed "Independence Day" on April 2, 2025—he argues the real turbulence is just beginning.

"Trump shock is not done yet," Tiggre declared, emphasizing that his critique isn't partisan. "By Trump shock, I don't necessarily mean to criticize Trump. I'm neither praising nor criticizing Donald Trump. I'm saying that his agenda is transformative." Drawing on analyst Doomberg's lens, Tiggre frames Trump's policies as "military adjacent": reshoring manufacturing for tanks and weapons, securing critical minerals, and achieving energy independence. It's not chaos, he insists—it's "Fortress America," a bid for geopolitical supremacy against rivals like Putin and Xi.

This vision, Tiggre explains, is profoundly inflationary. Tariffs—already escalating on India amid its war entanglements and Russia's oil purchases—exceed Liberation Day levels and are rippling through the real economy via "long and invariable lags." Add Europe's remilitarization, Russia's war machine, and China's stimulus-fueled battle against deflation, and the picture sharpens: global inflationary pressures are mounting.

"Consequences? Beware of weakness hitting the mainstream investment ideas," Tiggre cautioned. "The market darlings out there, I think they're all vulnerable. I'm not calling for a market crash tomorrow... but crazy things going on in the world, big changes happening, all-time highs and insane valuations on Wall Street. What could possibly go wrong? Buyer beware."

For commodities, the tailwind is clear: "This is bullish for everything real... everything that the governments of the world cannot print." Even if the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) slashed $2 trillion in spending—as rumored but unconfirmed—the "Big Beautiful Bill" and trillions in infrastructure would still stoke inflation. Tiggre's portfolio reflects this: he's building cash, eyeing dips in industrial metals.

Bubbles in the Air: Housing, Real Estate, and the Copper Barometer

Pivoting to bubbles, Tiggre addressed the elephant in the room: China's stimulus dance around a housing resurgence. "They've been remarkably successful at not reigniting another housing bubble," he noted, but success here means demand spilling into industrial inputs. Enter copper—"Dr. Copper"—as the ultimate economic pulse-checker.

In the U.S., the lock-in effect from ultra-low mortgage rates has stifled mobility, dampening new construction. But resolution—via aggressive Fed rate cuts—could unleash a rebound, boosting wood (Canadian and U.S.) and rebar. Globally, demographics seal the deal: a growing population craving higher living standards in China, Africa, and beyond demands more copper, EVs or not.

Tiggre dismissed over-reliance on trendy narratives: "The reason to be bullish on copper is not because of AI data centers or because of EVs. It's Dr. Copper." Post-Iron Age, copper underpins the information age—wiring the world, literally. Hybrids guzzle more copper than gas guzzlers; data centers are bricks-and-mortar reality, not hype. Even AI skeptics (Tiggre penned "Artificial Stupidity") can't deny the build-out.

Overlooked catalysts? Labor strikes in Peru, Chinese inventory drawdowns—unmodelable "black swans" that perpetually erode supply. "There's always something," Tiggre quipped, from roadblocks to mudslides. Mining guidance is notoriously optimistic; build in a "base case negative" for unknowns.

Near-term, Trump shock poses downside: "If there's a near-term hit to the economy... there is a near-term downside potential on all industrial minerals, including copper." Tiggre's response? Cash hoarding for the dip. "I'm actually building cash right now... I've got more cash than I've had in my portfolio... and it's got copper earmarked right on top." A multi-decade bull justifies patience.

Uranium: Fundamentals Trump Policy Noise

Yesterday's bombshell—U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright's push for a strategic uranium reserve to slash Russia's 25% share of enriched uranium—lit up headlines. Tiggre, a high-conviction uranium bull alongside copper, sees it as bullish but peripheral.

"Switching from Russian-enriched uranium to getting it from somewhere else doesn't actually change the mining side so much," he explained. Uranium is fungible; spot prices may jiggle, but enrichment plays (e.g., U.S. or Western facilities) benefit most directly. The real juice? A bifurcated market: Western prices soaring as Russia-Kazakhstan supply funnels East to China.

Fundamentals are ironclad: supply deficits persist. Secondary sources have evaporated; primary production lags. Kazakhstan and Canada—key players—have slashed guidance (e.g., 18 million pounds from Canada? "Maybe not so fast"). Restarting idled mines? "A lot more difficult, a lot more expensive, a lot more time-consuming than anybody hoped." No project delivers on time or budget.

Demand? Relentless. The U.S.-U.K. pact for 12 advanced reactors, China's fleet-doubling by 2040 (with dozens under construction), and daily headlines scream growth. "To do something by 2040, that's like tomorrow" in nuclear timelines.

Tiggre dismisses overpromise risks: "That's not a risk... that's a certainty." Warren Irwin's "billion pounds" thesis? Valid on reserves, flawed on timelines—"from the ground to the reactor is a long way." Downside needs a Chernobyl; upside? Overshoots fuel speculator gains. "The supply and demand fundamentals paint a very bullish case... for years going forward."

Gold and Silver: Vertical Ambitions and Profit-Taking Prudence

At $3,700/oz, gold's nominal and inflation-adjusted all-time highs invite euphoria—and caution. Tiggre, no stranger to rotten tomatoes for bucking hockey-stick hype, urges balance: "Nobody goes broke taking profits."

Yet, intuition screams higher: "Having taken out... a real all-time high adjusted for inflation, there actually is no resistance... Once you break through the roof, there's nothing to stop you." Echoing his prescient $3,000 call, Tiggre senses "it wants to go higher." $4,000 could spark mainstream mania—Bitcoin-style—propelling to $5,000 (a mere 25% from there). But 2011's Kool-Aid lingers: post-GFC, he overestimated; prudence now rules.

He's "massively long," but with "upside maximizer triggers" (detailed in a free Independent Speculator report) to lock gains. "Don't let your wins slip through your claws."

Silver, at $43-$44/oz, mirrors this: "It feels like it wants to take out 50." Punching mid-40s resistance opens the floodgates; for miners, $50 is cash-printing nirvana—"If you can't make money in this environment, that is not a quality stock." Darth Silver's moniker fits: industrial demand (tied to copper) now outpaces gold's monetary pull, creating a "double-tail wind."

Trump shock hits silver harder short-term, but long-term? "If I'm long-term bullish on gold and copper, how can I not be long-term bullish on silver as well?" No $50 top-and-reverse; it's breakout territory.

Beyond 2025: Copper Reigns, But Watch the Radar

Peering ahead, Tiggre hesitates—it's early September, not November, for annual calls. Lithium? Nickel? Cobalt? "Toast," he says; LFP batteries erode demand, chemistries evolve. Nickel endures industrially, lithium's abundance tempers hype.

Gun to head: "Copper continues to be my top bet in '26." Not for magnitude—gold could manic to $5,000 this year—but confidence. Delayed 2025 upside spills over; it's the "surer bet."

Q&A: Jurisdiction Risks, Jackpots, and Jaw-Droppers

Followers' queries added spice. Opinion on Bolivia? Tiggre owned New Pacific Metals (now in his track record) for its cheap, world-class discoveries—but sold. A pre-nationalization ministerial promise ("We're not going to go around nationalizing things") burned him; social license genies don't re-bottle. "It would take a very compelling opportunity, as in pennies on the dollar... And I would probably need to go there." Check his free Political Risk Map at independentspeculator.com—every country rated, defaults cautious for unvisited spots.

Opinion on Niger? "Absolute no-go." Recent coups (uranium-rich, yes) echo Mali's mining meltdown: juntas flip unpredictably. "If you can't read the warnings on the wall... you deserve whatever happens."

Opinion on the Balkans (Croatia, Slovenia, Bosnia, Serbia, Bulgaria)? "Mixed... but broadly speaking, very pro-mining." Eastern Europe's Soviet scars breed pragmatism: "If we've got natural resources, we've got to go ahead." Serbia's seen his capital; rule-of-law gaps prevent a blanket green light, but opportunities abound.

Biggest gain? First Majestic Silver: a ~$1 buy post-drill write-off (two deposits intact) rocketed to $20+—a 20-bagger via Casey Research. Skeena Resources: 10x, profits trimmed early. AUEX Ventures? 17x so far, but spins (Long Canyon to Newmont, Renaissance to Origin) could hit 50x. "I hate losing money... I make money more often than I lose." No 100-baggers yet—risk aversion trumps home runs.

Most impressive visit? Pretium's Brucejack mine in Canada. Amid "specks of gold" elsewhere, this was a quartz-electrum seam "as wide as I am"—oxidized gold-silver alloy, unplanned bonus. "You are looking at so much money in your face."

Closing the Loop: Speculate Wisely

Tiggre's worldview? Transformative agendas breed inflation; supply crunches meet demand surges; resistance-free breakouts invite mania—but always with stops. As he signed off: independentspeculator.com for the free Speculator's Digest, plus paid due diligence. In commodities, as in life, fortune favors the prepared speculator.

This interview underscores a timeless truth: markets overshoot, but fundamentals endure. Whether uranium's supply straitjacket, copper's demographic destiny, or precious metals' vertical tease, 2025 promises fireworks. Just don't forget the cash for the dips—and the triggers for the peaks.

Disclaimer: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any shares, products, or services. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor.