After more than a decade of capital concentration in technology, growth stocks, and most recently artificial intelligence, cracks are beginning to show in global asset allocation. According to veteran resource investor John Polomny, the world is entering the early innings of a full-scale commodity supercycle—one driven not by hype, but by structural underinvestment, geopolitical realignment, and hard supply constraints.
In this interview, Polomny outlined why commodities, from uranium to copper and precious metals, are positioned to outperform into 2026 and beyond, while global equities may continue higher—but with far more selective opportunities.
This article distills the key insights, themes, and investment implications from that conversation, optimized for investors searching for clarity in an increasingly complex macro environment.
Despite widespread pessimism, Polomny remains constructive on the global economic outlook.
“If I look at the world economy, I don’t see a catalyst for a massive pullback.”
Several forces underpin this view:
Falling global interest rates over the past two years
The U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle, with expectations of a more dovish Federal Reserve leadership
Abundant liquidity, which historically supports asset prices
Low real energy prices, acting as a powerful economic stimulus
While acknowledging a K-shaped economy—where not all segments benefit equally—Polomny argues that macro conditions remain broadly supportive for growth, particularly outside overvalued U.S. equity sectors.
Polomny believes 2025 marked a culmination point—a shift in the long-running battle between financial assets and real assets.
“I’m not hesitant to use this word anymore: supercycle.”
Decade-long underinvestment in mining and resource development
Exploding demand from AI, electrification, and infrastructure
Supply inelasticity, especially for metals with long permitting timelines
Capital rotation away from overvalued U.S. equities
As he puts it:
“If you don’t grow it or you don’t mine it, you don’t have it.”
The world is now confronting the physical limits of that reality.
Artificial intelligence may be software-driven, but its backbone is brutally physical.
Data centers, power grids, transmission lines, and storage systems all require massive quantities of copper, silver, uranium, and specialty metals. Yet these sectors were largely ignored during the AI investment boom.
Polomny draws a direct parallel to the dot-com era:
“This was similar to 1999–2000. All the attention went to the narrative, while the enabling infrastructure was ignored.”
The result? Structural deficits that markets are only now beginning to price in.
If forced to pick a single resource opportunity, Polomny doesn’t hesitate.
“I have to go back to uranium.”
New reactors under construction in China, South Korea, and the United States
Reactor life extensions across developed markets
No meaningful new supply coming online
A projected 2 billion pound cumulative uranium deficit over the next 20 years, according to Goldman Sachs
“It’s not an if—it’s a when situation.”
— echoing the long-held view of Rick Rule
Because uranium is a small, illiquid market, even modest capital inflows can lead to explosive price moves.
Silver delivered one of its strongest years on record, fueled by both monetary and industrial demand.
“When silver moves, it moves very quickly—and very violently.”
Key factors behind silver’s rally:
Extreme undervaluation relative to gold (gold–silver ratio near 100)
Growing industrial use in solar panels and electrification
Chronic supply deficits
Short-term pullbacks, Polomny argues, are normal and healthy.
“There’s never a conspiracy theory when it makes new highs.”
Long term, he believes silver still has substantial upside as it continues to “play catch-up” to gold.
Gold’s strength, according to Polomny, has less to do with inflation and more to do with geopolitics and reserve diversification.
As power shifts toward the Global South and East, particularly among BRICS nations, confidence in traditional reserve assets is changing.
“Central banks are going back into gold.”
Key drivers include:
Reduced trust in U.S. Treasuries following asset freezes and sanctions
Massive trade surpluses (notably in China) seeking neutral stores of value
A re-monetization of gold in central bank reserves
Gold, in this framework, acts as financial insurance rather than a speculative trade.
Polomny rejects alarmist narratives about an imminent dollar collapse but sees long-term structural weakness.
“We’re not doing things that are conducive to a stronger dollar.”
Challenges include:
Persistent fiscal deficits
Rising entitlement obligations
Massive debt rollovers
Gradual erosion of institutional credibility
The process, he emphasizes, is slow and nonlinear—more Roman Empire than Weimar Republic.
Despite stretched valuations, Polomny does not foresee a major market correction in 2026.
“I actually think 2026 is going to do well.”
Reasons include:
Declining interest rates
Falling rents and easing inflation pressures
Strong real economic inputs, especially energy
Continued liquidity support
That said, he cautions against broad index investing at these levels and instead points toward selective global and commodity-focused opportunities.
For investors navigating 2026 and beyond, Polomny’s message is clear:
Rotate selectively out of overvalued growth equities
Focus on real assets with supply constraints
Expect volatility—but recognize it as opportunity
Study past cycles, especially commodity-led recoveries
“History doesn’t repeat exactly, but it’s very instructive.”
The commodity supercycle thesis is no longer contrarian—it is becoming increasingly visible in price action, capital flows, and geopolitical strategy. If Polomny is right, investors are still in the early innings, with the most powerful moves yet to come.
For those willing to look beyond narratives and into the physical realities of the global economy, 2026 may prove to be a defining year.
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