An in-depth article based on the interview with Don Durrett, founder of GoldStockData.com

November 29, 2025

For the past four years, gold has been screaming a message that Wall Street has stubbornly refused to hear.

Gold is up over 120% since it decisively broke $2,000 in 2020, never once seriously retesting that level. Silver joined the party in August 2025 when it blasted through $40 and never looked back, running all the way to $54.50 before a normal correction. Yet the mining stocks — the most leveraged way to play rising metal prices — remain largely ignored by the $64 trillion U.S. equity market complex.

That is about to change. And according to respected precious metals analyst Don Durrett, the catalyst won’t be pretty.

The Only Chart That Matters: The S&P 500 Top

Don Durrett has a simple thesis that has guided him for over 20 years:

“Right now, the S&P 500 is the only chart that truly matters for gold and the miners.”

While gold and silver have been in a relentless bull market all year, the S&P 500 has also marched to repeated all-time highs, currently sitting near 6,800–6,900. The $64 trillion invested in U.S. stocks has had zero reason to rotate into the tiny, illiquid, misunderstood precious metals mining sector.

That changes the moment the broad stock market rolls over.

Durrett’s base case: a 40% crash in the S&P 500 over the next 6–9 months.

When that happens, he believes a historic rotation will finally occur — the same kind that sent gold mining stocks up 8× from the lows of 2001 to the peak in 2011 after the dot-com crash and 9/11.

“That money is not in the miners today. But when the S&P crashes, that $64 trillion has to go somewhere. And I believe it will rotate into the miners.”

He is quick to point out this will not be a straight line. First comes another sharp correction in the metals complex itself — likely 10–15% in gold and deeper in the miners — as the initial stock market decline triggers a temporary “risk-off” move across all assets.

But once the dust settles, the real move begins.

The Fragile U.S. Bond Market: The Real Reason Gold Is at $4,166

Durrett’s core investment thesis has nothing to do with jewelry demand in India or central bank buying (though both help). It is far more structural.

He believes gold’s entire move above $2,000 — and especially the relentless ramp to $4,350 earlier this year — is the market pricing in the slow-motion failure of the U.S. Treasury market as the world’s risk-free asset.

Key points from the interview:

• The U.S. has been living off foreign capital inflows for 30+ years.
• Post-Ukraine war, the weaponization of the dollar has accelerated de-dollarization and made foreign buyers far more cautious about rolling over Treasuries.
• The U.S. is now adding debt at 8% per year while real economic growth remains 1–3%.
• Interest on the federal debt in 2025 alone will hit $1.2 trillion — 4× higher than pre-COVID levels.
• Debt-to-GDP is 120% and rising. There is no political will for austerity.

“Gold is the truth-teller. The stock market at 6,900 is a pack of lies. Bonds are lying. The only asset telling the truth right now is gold.”

Legendary investors appear to agree:

• Warren Buffett is sitting on $350 billion in cash (30% of Berkshire’s portfolio).
• Michael Burry has closed his fund.
• Jim Rogers warns the coming recession will be the worst of his lifetime.
• Jeremy Grantham calls this the most overvalued, vulnerable market he has ever seen.

The Setup Is Historic

Durrett describes the current setup as “absolutely fascinating” and “epic”:

• Gold has doubled from $2,000 to over $4,300 without ever seriously pulling back.
• Silver’s breakout above $40 in August 2025 brought a flood of retail money into the sector for the first time.
• The HUI Gold Bugs Index broke out in August and ran hard into mid-October before correcting 22%.
• Sentiment is surprisingly poor — many retail investors who bought the August breakout took profits and are now waiting on the sidelines.

In other words: the easy retail money has already come and gone. Wall Street has still not shown up.

That leaves the sector extremely washed-out and under-owned just as the macro trigger (a stock market crash) approaches.

Target for the HUI: 1,800–2,000 (from current ~660)

Durrett believes the 8× move off the 2000–2001 lows has already begun. From current levels he still sees 3–4× upside in the sector over the next several years, with the HUI eventually trading between 1,800 and 2,000.

But first: another 10–15% correction in gold and likely 20–30% in the miners as the stock market begins its decline.

Top Silver Miners: The “Must-Own” List

Durrett maintains a database of 850 precious metals companies. His current top-tier silver producers (the “Mormons” — you can marry all of them):

1. Coeur Mining
2. Pan American Silver
3. Hecla Mining
4. First Majestic Silver
5. Endeavour Silver
6. Fresnillo (despite trading only in London/pink sheets)
7. MAG Silver
8. Aya Gold & Silver (long-term monster with Boumadine in Morocco)

Other names he rates very highly:

• America’s Gold & Silver (USAC) – rapidly scaling U.S. production + smart acquisitions
• Guanajuato Silver (GSVR) – just acquired the past-producing Balvanera mine for $50M; could be a 15–25× at $125 silver
• Integra Resources (ITRG) – pivoted from developer to producer with Florida Canyon acquisition
• 1911 Gold – his favorite development story; fully permitted mill + deposit in Manitoba
• Vizsla Silver – Panuco feasibility shows 20M oz/year at only $250M capex
• GoGold Resources – Los Ricos dual-project story in Mexico; massively undervalued
• Discovery Silver – Cordero is the #1 silver development project on the planet

Final Warning: This Is Speculation, Not Investing

Durrett is crystal clear:

“Buying gold and silver mining stocks is not investing. This is speculation. You are betting the price of the metal goes dramatically higher. Only use money you can afford to lose. These stocks can drop 25% in a single day.”

Conclusion: A Generational Opportunity Approaches

Don Durrett has been waiting 20 years for this exact setup:

• A fragile, over-indebted U.S. Treasury market slowly losing its risk-free status
• An euphoric, fully-invested stock market at all-time highs
• Gold and silver in confirmed bull markets
• Mining stocks washed out, under-owned, and trading at fractions of fair value at $4,000+ gold

When the S&P 500 finally cracks, he believes the rotation into the miners will be unlike anything we have seen in our lifetimes.

As he somberly concluded:

“If I’m right and gold wins, it means something very bad has broken in the financial system. This isn’t a victory to celebrate. People are going to get hurt.”

But for those who have positioned themselves in the right mining stocks, the financial rewards could be life-changing.

The trigger is coming. The question is no longer if — only when.

Website referenced in the interview: https://goldstockdata.com Book: “How to Invest in Gold & Silver” by Don Durrett (Amazon)

Watch the interview here:

Disclaimer: This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice. Precious metals mining stocks are extremely volatile and speculative. Always perform your own due diligence.