We sat down with respected resource analyst Lobo Tigre to discuss the state of the commodity markets, the future of monetary metals, and where disciplined investors may find true value in 2026. Known for his emphasis on due diligence and contrarian thinking, Lobo offered one of his most in-depth assessments yet of oil, gold, silver, copper, uranium, and the broader macro landscape.
Lobo highlighted oil as his primary “buy low” opportunity, explaining that while the sector has been deeply out of favor for years, fundamentals have dramatically improved. Many oil companies are generating strong cash flow, yet investor sentiment remains negative. He noted that even major geopolitical events have failed to push oil significantly higher, which reinforces how undervalued the sector still is. Although some oil stocks have rebounded recently, he believes more volatility will create fresh buying opportunities throughout 2026.
Despite being a long-term advocate for monetary metals, Lobo is currently sidelined on gold and silver. Gold near $5,000 and silver around $75–80 are not the kinds of entry points he considers attractive. While he remains bullish on both metals over the coming years, he views the current environment as a period of correction and consolidation. A sharp volatility event—such as a $1,000 daily drop in gold—could create meaningful opportunities, but he prefers to wait until sentiment turns negative or the broader narrative shifts before adding new positions.
Lobo explained that price alone would not convince him. He’s watching for a change in narrative—a moment when enthusiasm fades and pessimism returns. He also analyzes the shape of the market’s chart patterns, noting that current price action does not resemble historic topping formations like 1980 or 2011. For now, he sees the uptrend intact with volatility, but is prepared to act if a deep sentiment reset occurs.
When asked about correlations during a potential 2026 market selloff, Lobo acknowledged there are two broad possibilities. The first is a gradual cooling of the AI and tech bubbles—already visible in the weakening SaaS sector. Under this softer scenario, demand for copper, energy, and uranium remains strong due to continued data center growth and electrification trends.
The second possibility is a full-blown 2008-style liquidity crisis. In that event, everything—from equities to commodities to gold—tends to get sold as investors scramble for cash. Lobo emphasized that this is normal behavior for gold in a liquidity crunch, not a failure of gold’s role. Historically, gold rebounds quickly after the forced selling ends.
He also referenced the work of macro thinker Lynn Alden, agreeing that fiscal dominance—governments spending aggressively while central banks accommodate—remains a defining force. This environment supports long-term strength in real assets like gold, copper, uranium, and oil.
Copper remains one of Lobo’s highest-conviction themes due to ongoing structural supply challenges and long-term demand from electrification, grid expansion, and data infrastructure. According to him:
ETFs suit risk-averse investors seeking broad exposure.
Producers offer meaningful leverage to rising prices.
Explorers provide high-risk, high-reward potential—but only when the discovery is large enough to attract a major mining company. Small, high-grade veins don’t move the needle in a metal as capital-intensive as copper.
Lobo is bullish on uranium but waiting for better prices. Following the 2025 “Deep Seek” correction, the sector rebounded quickly, and quality uranium stocks now trade near record highs. He refuses to buy at these levels, even though he holds significant uranium positions already. While the long-term story remains intact due to global nuclear expansion, he believes volatility will create more attractive entries later in 2026.
Each year, Lobo publishes his real trades publicly on independentspeculator.com, and 2025 was a standout case study. The year was dominated by powerful upward moves across the resource sector. As a result, even low-quality companies surged, and for the first time, the GDXJ outperformed his diversified portfolio. His gold and silver selections still beat the GDXJ, but he noted that momentum-driven markets temporarily rewarded FOMO more than discipline. The correction in early 2026, however, has since validated the value of maintaining strict standards.
Lobo finds it hard to imagine a severe long-term decline in monetary metals. Central banks continue to buy aggressively, fiscal pressures remain high, and geopolitical risks are persistent. Still, he offered a hypothetical worst-case situation: a repeat of 2011.
If January 2026 marked the peak in gold, the market could form a long plateau and drift downward for several years, much like it did after 2011. Yet even in that scenario, investors who bought the 2011 top have more than doubled their money by now. Meanwhile, those who averaged down during the 2013–2015 lows achieved extraordinary returns. A similar setup in the future would provide exceptional opportunities for new investors.
Lobo directs readers to independentspeculator.com, where he publishes a free weekly digest and full trade disclosures. He is also active on X under @duediligenceguy, where he engages with a highly informed community and uses the platform as an ongoing idea generator.
Lobo’s overarching message is simple: remain patient, avoid chasing excitement, and prepare to buy real assets when pessimism returns. Whether in oil, copper, uranium, or monetary metals, disciplined investors who wait for truly undervalued moments—rather than buying into hype—will be positioned for the strongest long-term gains.
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