Navigating Mixed Market Signals
Chris Vermeulen, a technical analyst, trader, and the Founder and Chief Investment Officer of Technical Traders Ltd., shared his insights on navigating today’s volatile markets, the impact of algorithmic trading, and his outlook for equities, commodities and more over the next 12 to 18 months.

Decoding Mixed Market Signals
The current market environment is rife with conflicting signals, with stock indices hitting all-time highs while many investors find themselves on the wrong side of trade, holding inverse ETFs or put options that are losing value. Chris emphasized the importance of focusing on price action, particularly on daily charts, to cut through the noise. “The daily chart is our best indicator,” he noted, advocating for a disciplined approach that avoids chasing prices. Instead, traders should wait for proper setups and confirm strong trends before entering positions.
Chris cautioned against emotional trading driven by fear of missing out (FOMO). “If you’re feeling frustrated or on the wrong side, it means you don’t have a plan,” he said. His advice for new traders? Seek a mentor or a system to guide decisions and manage emotions. “There’s always another opportunity in the markets,” he reassured, urging patience to avoid buying at market peaks.

The Impact of Algorithmic Trading and AI
The rise of algorithmic trading and AI-driven strategies has undeniably transformed markets, but Chris believes it hasn’t fundamentally altered long-term price movements for swing traders or investors. While high-frequency trading can create short-term volatility, as seen in the 2010 flash crash, the broader market trends remain driven by supply and demand. “Price goes up or down, maybe just a bit quicker,” he observed.
For retail investors, Chris sees AI as just another participant in the zero-sum game of trading. “You’re always playing against someone else,” he said, emphasizing the need for robust risk management to navigate market manipulations or unexpected news. Rather than blaming external factors for losses, traders should accept them as part of the game and focus on disciplined strategies.

Equities, Bonds, and Commodities: A Bearish Long-Term Outlook

With global debt levels soaring and inflation concerns lingering, Chris shared a cautious outlook for the next 12 to 18 months. While he remains long on equities for now, citing the strong uptrend in indices like the S&P 500, he’s raising cash in anticipation of a market pause or correction. “We’re getting to a point where the markets usually reset,” he explained, pointing to a potential 40%+ drop in stock prices if a bear market unfolds.
This reset, he believes, could drag down precious metals, real estate, and other asset classes. However, Chris sees opportunity in such downturns. “A reset is a huge opportunity,” he said, noting that disciplined investors can profit from falling prices through inverse ETFs or by reinvesting at lower levels for the next bull market. His subscribers, he added, are excited about the potential to grow accounts during a market decline.

Gold: A Bright Spot with a Caveat
Gold has been a cornerstone of Chris’s bullish calls, driven by central banks increasing reserves and potential rate cuts. He predicts gold could rally to $4,100 per ounce in the next one to three months but warns of a potential pullback to the low $3,000 range if a broader market sell-off occurs. “When people panic, they liquidate everything,” he explained, including gold, due to margin calls and forced selling.
Chris monitors price action and sentiment to confirm his outlook, emphasizing gold’s role as a global barometer of economic health. “When the whole world gets nervous, gold is firm and stable,” he said.

Silver: High Volatility, High Risk
While silver has gained traction due to its industrial demand, Chris finds it harder to time than gold. “Silver can take the elevator up or down,” he noted, highlighting its propensity for sharp spikes and drops. Although silver could outperform gold in the short term, its industrial ties make it vulnerable to an economic slowdown. Technical analysis suggests gold has more upside potential over the next two months, making it Chris’s preferred precious metal for now.

Oil and Natural Gas: Bearish Signals and Volatility Ahead
Chris is bearish on crude oil, which he sees trending toward $55–$56 per barrel based on a bear flag formation. Recent rallies driven by news, such as geopolitical tensions, have quickly reversed, reinforcing his view that news-driven moves are unreliable. “The charts tell us where momentum is headed,” he said, dismissing news as the primary driver of price action.
Natural gas, meanwhile, is at a crossroads, with the potential for either a significant top or a breakout to $7.50. Currently trading at $3.35, it could fall to $2.00 or rally significantly. Chris advises waiting for a clear breakout before taking a position to avoid the 50-50 risk of its current coil spring pattern.

Commodities: Copper and Uranium
Chris expressed caution on uranium, citing overbought conditions in uranium stock ETFs. “The move is done,” he said, suggesting a correction is likely alongside broader market declines. Copper, while historically a global economic barometer, has been skewed by tariff-related volatility, leading Chris to deprioritize it in his analysis.
Intermarket Dynamics and the US Dollar
Chris’s intermarket analysis highlights striking similarities between today’s market and the 2007 peak. Gold and stocks are at extremes, while the US dollar index is deeply oversold, much like it was before the 2008 financial crisis. “The dollar tends to shine during economic weakness,” he noted, predicting a potential rally if a market reset occurs. This interplay shapes his bearish long-term outlook, with gold likely to peak soon and the dollar finding a bottom.

A Career-Defining Lesson
Reflecting on his early career, Chris shared a pivotal mistake from the 2000 tech bubble. Despite investing in fundamentally strong companies, he lost his entire capital when their share prices collapsed. “Fundamentals don’t always work,” he realized, shifting his focus to price action. “Price is the only thing that pays,” he emphasized, advocating for a strategy that follows trends and momentum rather than company fundamentals.
This lesson led to his intermarket approach, where he tracks asset classes that benefit from market shifts, such as inverse ETFs during downturns. Chris also stressed the importance of staying in cash during uncertain times. “Sometimes the sidelines is the best position,” he advised, noting that his portfolio is currently heavy in cash to mitigate risk.

Connect with Chris Vermeulen
Chris shares his daily analysis and trade alerts through TheTechnicalTraders.com and his YouTube channel, The Technical Traders. His newsletter offers insights into his ETF-focused portfolio, which averages 5–12 trades per year, designed to profit in all market conditions. “We catch upswings, avoid downswings, or profit from falling markets,” he said, highlighting a 25% gain during this year’s market correction.

Final Thoughts
Chris Vermeulen’s disciplined, price-focused approach offers a roadmap for navigating today’s volatile markets. From avoiding FOMO (fear of missing out) to preparing for a potential market reset, his insights underscore the importance of patience, risk management, and a clear strategy. As always, it was a pleasure to learn from Chris, and I look forward to our next conversation.

Disclaimer: This article is not a recommendation to buy or sell any shares, products, or services. Always conduct your own due diligence and consult with a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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